August 2024 - Climate Impact Company

08/30/2024, 9:00 am EDT

The SEP/OCT/NOV North Atlantic TC Outlook Versus Normal

Climate Impact Company cut the North Atlantic seasonal TC forecast to 17 storms, 11 hurricanes, and 6 intense hurricanes on Aug. 27. The North Atlantic environment is forecast to be exceptionally supportive of above too much above normal activity for the next 10 weeks. Operational (model) forecasts doubt that level of activity. The CIC forecast vs. climatology is a good range of expectations for SEP, OCT, and NOV 2024.

08/30/2024, 5:56 am EDT

Sneaky Wet in Northeast Argentina/Southeast Brazil

The largest surprise in forecast models is the increase in rainfall in the 15-day outlook for Northeast Argentina, Uruguay, and Southeast Brazil. The AIFS forecasts consistent rains piling to several to 6 inches due to a quasi-stationary frontal boundary in the region.

08/29/2024, 1:37 pm EDT

Deluge of Rain Ahead on the Texas Coast

Massive amounts of thunderstorm activity is percolating in the western Gulf of Mexico. A widening area of thunderstorms along a low-pressure trough emerges, lasts for many days, and produces 15-20 in. of rain near the Texas/Louisiana coast.

08/29/2024, 3:51 am EDT

Dry/Hot Pattern Accelerating East Europe/West Russia Drought SLOWLY Fades in September

ALERT drought conditions are widespread across the Black Sea region and worsening during late summer. Drought is widespread from Southeast Europe to Southwest Russia. Slowly, the week 2-4 outlook erodes the high pressure causing the accelerating drought during late meteorological summer.

08/28/2024, 5:15 am EDT

Strengthening MJO/SOI Causal to Sudden La Nina Trend

The persistent +SOI, enhanced by MJO, is causing eastern equatorial Pacific trade winds to increase. Subsurface cool waters in the equatorial Pacific are beginning to up-well to the surface. The Nino34 SSTA is now -0.13C after dropping 0.27C during the past 7 days.

08/28/2024, 5:07 am EDT

Expanding Europe Heatwave

The southeast quadrant of Europe to Southwest Russia has averaged 3-6C warmer than normal during the past week with attendant widespread dryness. The latest 15-day forecasts widen the anomalous heat and dryness in Europe to Western Russia!

08/27/2024, 2:34 pm EDT

Indian Ocean Dipole Shifts Negative, Albeit Weak

Currently, the Indian Ocean dipole is in weak positive phase. The western basin is 0.32C warmer than the eastern basin identifying the +IOD regime. The IOD trend of recent weeks is to drift into the weak positive phase. The IOD forecast was a shift into the negative phase for the last third of 2024. Due to the recent rewarming of the western tropical North Atlantic, the -IOD forecast remains, but is generally weaker and not all models project -IOD.

08/27/2024, 8:04 am EDT

UPDATED North Atlantic Basin 2024 Tropical Season Outlook…Still Very Active SEP/OCT/NOV

The SEP/OCT/NOV 2024 tropical cyclone activity forecast projects a still dangerous total of 12 storms, 8 hurricanes, and 5 intense hurricanes with an ACE index of 168. The activity forecast for the second half of the season is about 137% of the 30-year normal.

08/25/2024, 3:06 pm EDT

Excessive Heat/Damaging Wind Midwest U.S.

On Monday, a large area of damaging wind is likely from northeast Nebraska to southern Minnesota. Severe storms rumble across Michigan on Tuesday. Extreme heat and humidity precede the severe thunderstorm outbreaks.

08/25/2024, 11:48 am EDT

Explaining The U.S. Summertime Warm Bias in U.S. Medium-range Forecasts

Dynamic models and to a degree AI outlooks have produced consistent too warm medium-range forecasts in the U.S. during summer 2024. The most likely issue with dynamic models is unexpected cooler SSTA either side of the U.S. causing mid-summer troughs suppressing heat risk.

08/24/2024, 11:46 am EDT

Explaining Lack of Tropical Cyclone Activity; Where SEP/OCT Locates

Cooling of the equatorial Atlantic has pushed the ITCZ farther north and into the faster than normal trade wind belt. Saharan Dust has shifted westward through the trade wind belt. These conditions are preventing tropical cyclone activity. Due to these conditions, the western North Atlantic basin becomes the most favored location for tropical cyclone development.

08/21/2024, 5:22 am EDT

Eastern Europe Heatwave Ahead

AIFS projects an upper ridge developing along the Eastern Europe/Western Russia border this weekend and amplifying during the medium range. The sensible weather forecast projects very warm to hot weather beneath the ridge. High temperatures reach 35C in Ukraine to Southwest Russia with 40C possible near and east of Caspian Sea into Kazakhstan. 35-40C threaten Southeast Europe.