The end of July 2024 global marine heatwave assessment from NOAA indicated that 35% of the oceans are in marine heat wave status. The monthly observation ranks 14th highest in the nearly 400 months of observations dating back to 1991. NOAA indicates MHW coverage of 35% now will decrease to about 30% by October 2024.

After a month-long dormant period, the Madden Julian oscillation (MJO) has reactivated over the tropical Indian Ocean. The 15-day forecast utilizing all operational models indicates MJO will move east to Maritime Continent over the next 15 days. The MJO enhances convection, certainly evident in the tropical Indian Ocean and surrounding areas (Africa, India, and Western Indonesia) now where heavy rain is occurring.

A comparison between the Climate Impact Company constructed analog and NOAA/CPC probabilistic forecast for meteorological winter 2023-24 is, not surprisingly, reasonably similar. NOAA/CPC expands drought in the West-central/Central U.S. this autumn season. The Southeast/East Coast are at risk of tropical cyclone strikes the next couple months.

The North Atlantic basin is becoming ripe for a sudden uptick in tropical cyclone activity after Ernesto. ECMWF indicates many ALERTS for tropical cyclone development for later in August to mid-September. During this time, several to as many as 5 hurricanes may emerge.

Extreme rain has been produced by an unusual weather system on the East Coast of Australia during the past 1-2 days. An elongated cold front stretching northward from a polar vortex south of New Zealand joined forces with an inverted subtropical low-pressure trough off the Queensland Coast to produce an excessive rainfall event affecting Coastal Queensland and Coastal New South Wales.

Verification for July 2024 CDD for selected Europe cities were, on average, warmer than forecast. The strongest (warm) anomalies were in Vienna and Milan although Paris, Berlin, and Munich were each moderately warmer than normal. The Europe-East forecast maintains the warmer than normal signature.

La Nina trajectories for later 2024 are not developing yet. The southern oscillation index is stubbornly in an El Nino phase so far in August after marginal El Nino-like observations in July and June. The problem is surface pressure in the tropical East Pacific is not rising sufficiently and surface pressure in the far western Pacific tropics remains at normal level rather than lowering typical of La Nina.