August 2024 - Page 3 of 4 - Climate Impact Company

08/11/2024, 11:19 am EDT

NAWH In Control of NA/EU Weather Pattern

Strong upper trough stretched across the North Atlantic warm hole (NAWH) to the southeast of Greenland, has compensating trough and ridge patterns upstream and downstream causing high impact weather across North America and Europe into Russia during the next 15 days.

08/11/2024, 10:37 am EDT

Overachieving Cold Event into Southern Brazil Coffee Areas

A cold air mass has extended into South Brazil this morning. ECMWF temperature anomalies indicate departures from normal of up to 20C below normal in some areas. Scattered reports of <0C are reported across parts of the Southern Brazil coffee growing areas.

08/09/2024, 4:15 pm EDT

-IOD/ENSO Regimes across South America for OCT/NOV and DEC/JAN

Majority of forecast models are indicating La Nina development by early-to-middle quarter 4 of 2024. Some models are maintaining neutral ENSO. Current diagnostics favor neutral ENSO. Forecast models are more agreeable to the presence of -IOD. The comparison between -IOD/weak ENSO and La Nina coupled with -IOD yield differences but nothing profound. In general, the -IOD/LA Nina regime offers a wetter solution for Brazil.

08/08/2024, 7:31 pm EDT

California Observes Hottest July on Record

The hottest July on record was observed in California. An upper-level ridge in-between a low-pressure area in the central Great Plains and south of Alaska enhanced by the influence of a marine heat wave shifting into the northeast Pacific were catalysts to the record heat.

08/08/2024, 4:36 am EDT

Frost Risk for Southern Brazil Coffee

The southern extent of the coffee growing areas in Southern Brazil extend to the central portion of Parana. Beginning Saturday and repeating Tuesday, each morning presents a risk of frost.

08/07/2024, 5:01 pm EDT

South-central U.S. Drought Concern

The southern Great Plains remain at risk of flash drought through late August due to mostly dry and potentially very hot weather. The Southwest U.S. including Texas is also very hot and dry.

08/06/2024, 5:15 pm EDT

Drought Continues on the Australian South Coast

During July 2024 localized areas of above normal rain were observed on the West Coast, central continent, and parts of the Southeast Coast. Soil moisture anomalies for July 2024 continue to show drought on the South Coast including southwest continent and Victoria.

08/05/2024, 3:14 pm EDT

Not Much Support for La Nina Development

Climate diagnostics continue to indicate lack of a push toward La Nina. In July, the southern oscillation index was in a weak El Nino phase for the second consecutive month while subsurface upper ocean heat is only marginally cool. Using analogs, the ENSO forecast for the remainder of 2024 and possibly 2025 is neutral phase.

08/05/2024, 1:41 pm EDT

12Z GFS Introduces New TC Threat Next Week in Texas

At midday, the 12Z GFS introduces a new tropical cyclone risk emerging in the vicinity of the Yucatan Peninsula and traveling northwestward toward the Houston area early-to-middle of next week.

08/04/2024, 4:04 pm EDT

Turning Cooler South America in 6-10-Day Outlook

A sharp upper trough delivers a cool burst to South America during the 6-10-day period. The risk of <32F is evident across Argentina with a slight risk as far north as Southeast Brazil.

08/04/2024, 7:45 am EDT

Major Excessive Rainfall and Flooding Episode for Southeast/East U.S. Ahead!

The most destructive and life-threatening aspect of a tropical cyclone is flooding. Debby brings a gigantic area of excessive rainfall and attendant flash flood risk to the Southeast and East U.S. this week. 2-3 feet of rain is possible in parts of the Southeast U.S. as Debby stalls after moving inland.

08/02/2024, 8:55 am EDT

Big Rainstorm Ahead for Florida and the East Coast!

The next issue is an evolving rainstorm in Florida and along the Atlantic Seaboard developing this weekend and lasting for much of next week. The culprit is Tropical Disturbance 97L, currently located over northwest Haiti, and given an 90% chance of tropical cyclone development after 48 hours (by NOAA/NHC).