Highlight: Medium-range tropical cyclone risk/Central U.S. heat Fig. 1-2: The day-10 forecast of a possible tropical system near or in the Gulf of Mexico by the GFS and ECM. Discussion: The climate pattern becomes favorable for a possible tropical cyclone generating in the deep tropics during the medium-range. The risk area is across or near the Yucatan Peninsula according to GFS (Fig. 1) or already into the Bay of Campeche by ECM (Fig. 2). If the system is into the Gulf of Mexico the ECM ENS indicates the favored landfall target is the Texas Coast in 12-13 days. Meanwhile to the north of the convection-active tropics warm air is pumped into the middle atmosphere in the Central Great Plains amplifying an upper ridge pattern and increasing the risk of >90F/>95F in both the 6-10 and 11-15 day periods (Fig. 3-6). The latest mega-cluster forecast indicates an increasing risk of an amplified upper ridge centered on Wisconsin in the 11-15 day period (Fig. 7). Fig. 3-4: The 6-10 day risk of >90F and >95F. Fig. 5-6: The 11-15 day risk of >90F and >95F. Fig. 7: Mega-cluster depiction of the upper air pattern in 11-15 days.