07/14/2024, 7:07 pm EDT

Saharan Dust Stalls Tropical Development in North Atlantic

The North Africa climate pattern of the past 2-3 months is unusually hot and dry. Increasing trade winds south of intensifying subtropical high pressure is pushing Saharan Dust into the tropical/subtropical North Atlantic suppressing tropical cyclone development.
07/14/2024, 3:38 pm EDT

Hot Weather Causes Expanding Drought Risk in the U.S.

Deep layer soil moisture deficits indicate the primary target for developing harsh drought currently located across the east/south Great Plains, parts of the Missouri and Tennessee Valley(s), and the Mid-Atlantic region.
07/13/2024, 6:06 am EDT

Wet Pattern Ahead Squashes Texas Heat

Low pressure settles over Texas for 2-3 weeks inspiring wet weather to suppress summer heat. The rain can be frequently heavy leading to flooding. As mid-August approaches, tropical cyclone risk to the Texas coast returns.
07/13/2024, 5:08 am EDT

ENSO-Neutral Persists, Weak La Nina Still Possible for Later 2024

The subsurface equatorial Pacific Ocean cooled significantly during MAR/APR 2024 providing a promising catalyst for La Nina development during the second half of 2024. However, the cooling is reduced by 50% during the past 2 months and combined with a persistent neutral southern oscillation index suggests the current neutral ENSO phase is likely to persist with weak La Nina still possible but at reduced risk.