Beryl’s response to the anomalous warm SST during the early July trek was notable. First, Beryl became a hurricane once SST warmed to 84F in the central North Atlantic tropics. The earliest hurricane on record for this location was born as SST was much above the usual (for July 1) 81-82F SST for this region.

Heatwave conditions are likely to continue for Southwest Russia, the Black Sea region, and Southeast Europe. A dry regime is included in this hot zone. The hot weather is an extension to record heat of this week extending across Western Russia where many records were broken.

In the West, an expanding heatwave has developed. Excessive Heat Warnings cover most of California. The warning is valid through the weekend. Heat Advisories are posted for San Francisco and Los Angeles coastal areas. An Excessive Heat Watch is posted for Phoenix, AZ, Reno, NV, and Eastern Washington where excessive heat is likely to develop.

Category-5 Major Hurricane Beryl is confidently forecast to mover west to west-northwest across the Caribbean Sea through the next 60-72 hours. Forecast confidence lowers during and after passage of the Yucatan Peninsula. However, a turn more northwesterly to impact the Texas Coast on Sunday is an increasing risk!

The 4-5-day forecast track toward the Yucatan Peninsula is reasonably confident. However, once Beryl moves across the Yucatan, “track clusters” have mixed opinions on Beryl. The most confident forecast is a potential north turn (41.7%) while the second-most likely track is a continued due west course (37.9%). The least likely track is across the northern Yucatan Peninsula and eventually toward Texas (20.4%).