Saharan Dust and upper shear are suppressing tropical cyclone development now. The environment supporting tropical cyclone development improves by the middle third of August. Hurricanes threatening the U.S. Coast, primarily Florida, is indicated by ECMWF for the last third of August.

In June, the climate pattern just east of the Canadian Rocky Mountains and across much of the Canadian Prairies turned somewhat drier than normal. The June pattern was quite cool. In July, the dryness expands and intensifies.

A major drought is in-place across Southeast Europe and Western Turkey. Drought ALERT is widespread in these areas according to the Europe Drought Observatory (EDO). The NOAA/CPC daily soil moisture analysis identifies the Southeast Europe drought extension to Southwest Russia including most of the Black Sea region.

During the past few weeks, Saharan Dust propelled west and southwestward from Northwest Africa by easterly trade winds has increased. Visible satellite images from earlier today easily identify the dust clouds as light gray east of the Caribbean Sea.

Deep layer soil moisture deficits indicate the primary target for developing harsh drought currently located across the east/south Great Plains, parts of the Missouri and Tennessee Valley(s), and the Mid-Atlantic region.

The subsurface equatorial Pacific Ocean cooled significantly during MAR/APR 2024 providing a promising catalyst for La Nina development during the second half of 2024. However, the cooling is reduced by 50% during the past 2 months and combined with a persistent neutral southern oscillation index suggests the current neutral ENSO phase is likely to persist with weak La Nina still possible but at reduced risk.

As stated by Colorado State University in their July 9 update, Category-5 Major Hurricane was a “harbinger” of what’s ahead during the 2024 North Atlantic hurricane season. The record warm sea surface temperatures across the Caribbean Sea and main development region (MDR) for hurricanes east of the Caribbean Sea provide an ideal environment for tropical cyclones to form and strengthen as shown by Beryl.

The extremely warm thermal regime across the U.S. during 2024 continued in June. The month of June ranked 2nd hottest in 130-year history. Record heat was observed in Arizona and New Mexico. Near-record warmth was observed in California, Florida, Utah, Colorado, and Maryland plus all southern New England plus Maine. Only the northern Great Plains were near normal.