09/30/2019, 10:50 am EDT
The exceptionally warm Great Lakes will cause a warm autumn temperature bias for surrounding areas but could initiate intense lake-effect snows once winter arrives.
09/27/2019, 5:26 am EDT
The western U.S. Corn Belt was under the gun for a freeze risk based on forecasts from earlie rthis week. The forecast seemed reasonable given the upstream Montana snows producinga cold air source region. But as this week's operational forecasts indicated the primary influence on the Corn Belt was warmer ahead of the cold front and wetter due to the slower movement of the front and no freeze as the big chill lagged well to the west.
09/24/2019, 11:12 am EDT
The Southeast U.S. to Mid-Atlantic States continue to dry-out RAPIDLY. A significant drought is devloping in these regions. Rainfall needed to neutralize strong negative PDSI values is over 15 in. across eastern Georgia and now 12-15 in. in southern Alabama.
09/20/2019, 7:51 am EDT
The combination of long duration of vividly effective dynamic forcing to produce extreme rainfall caused yet another historic rainfall episode in southeast Texas.
09/19/2019, 5:00 am EDT
A leading contributor to the increased activenes of the North Atlantic basin seasonal tropical cyclone actvity ove rthe past 20 years has been the warming of the North Atlantic basin caused by the warm phase of the Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation.
09/16/2019, 12:02 pm EDT
The equatorial East Pacific surface and subsurface is cooling steadily. The East-central to far eastern equatorial Pacific surface has cooled to below normal. The subsurface East Pacific equatorial region has also cooled. Neutral ENSO is in-place but the short-term trend is toward La Nina.
09/12/2019, 9:26 am EDT
After a brief period of moderately intense warm phase of the Pacific decadal oscillation neutral phase has returned. During the past 2 decades the character of PDO has changed...weaker and shorter duration events where as previous patterns had a tendency to lock into warm or cool phase with intensity.
09/10/2019, 7:47 am EDT
During the past 3 months across the globe there were 18 regions of drier soil moisture conditions compare to only 8 wetter regimes.
09/06/2019, 5:55 am EDT
Autumn 2019 looks warm across Canada according to the latest 90-day outlook from the Canadian Meteorological Center. The catalyst to the warm forecast is the exceptionally warm ocean surface surrounding North America.
09/05/2019, 9:23 am EDT
The forecast keeps Dorian just offshore South Carolina today but may take the storm inland the southeast coast of North Carolina around dawn tomorrow. The closer proximity to land coupled with southwesterly upper shear should cause some weakening of Dorian but not much as models indicate surface pressure near 957 MB now rises only slightly to 963-965 MB for the encounter with North Carolina.