March 2024 - Climate Impact Company

03/31/2024, 10:36 am EDT

Brazil and (More) Europe Rains Ahead!

The South America 7-day percent of normal rainfall observations reveal a much drier trend across Argentina while patchy heavy rain areas are developing in Brazil. The 15-day percent of normal rainfall forecast across South America by ECM ENS stays wet in Brazil.

03/28/2024, 12:07 pm EDT

North Atlantic 2024 Tropical Cyclone Season Forecast: Extremely Dangerous Hurricane Season Ahead!

The Climate Impact Company (CIC) 2024 North Atlantic basin tropical cyclone (TC) season forecast projects 20 tropical storms, 10 hurricanes, and 5 intense hurricanes. The accumulative cyclone energy (ACE) index forecast is 187. The activity forecast is somewhat higher than normal.

03/28/2024, 5:40 am EDT

Shifting MJO Influence on Australia, South America, and Europe Rainfall

The Madden Julian oscillation (MJO) has been very active since last September. The 5th transient MJO across the equatorial Pacific recently ended and MJO is now shifting across the tropical Atlantic and heading back to home base in the Indian Ocean tropics in early April. The 15-day forecast utilizing all models indicates an eastward shift reaching Maritime Continent in 2 weeks with marginally moderate intensity is likely.

03/27/2024, 10:33 am EDT

Reworking North Atlantic Basin Seasonal Tropical Cyclone Climatology

Climate Impact Company has renewed seasonal North Atlantic tropical cyclone climatology for 1950-2023 for both El Nino southern oscillation (ENSO) and tropical North Atlantic (TNA) index phase and intensity. The climatology is based on ENSO and TNA index for AUG/SEP/OCT of each year.

03/26/2024, 9:37 am EDT

Eclipse Obscured by Cloudiness: Wind Event Central Great Plains Days 11-15

The lunar eclipse on Sunday April 7 begins at 1:27CDT in Texas and ends at 3:35EDT in Maine. The projected cloud cover for the event indicates most of the track has cloud obscuration according to GFS.

03/25/2024, 10:34 am EDT

El Nino Hanging On Despite Cooling Subsurface

Most instructive regarding ENSO is the current upper ocean heat analysis and comparison with one month ago. Note that the most recent analysis yields a sharp cool (blue) anomaly in the eastern equatorial Pacific off the northwest coast of South America. Westward toward the Dateline, an area of shallow anomalous warmth lingers able to sustain El Nino. Note the one-month trend is steadily cooler favoring weakening of El Nino and increasing risk of following La Nina.

03/25/2024, 6:02 am EDT

Australia Climate Likely to Shift Back into Wetter Regime of Early Decade

The Australia season 1-4 ahead outlook is update. The forecast is based primarily on an expected phase change of both the ENSO and IOD regimes plus the influence of marine heat waves on climate. The overall theme of the outlook is wetter as the 2020-22 wet climate across much of Australia returns for 2024.

03/25/2024, 5:56 am EDT

Emerging Excessive Rains West/Southwest Europe; Brazil and Australia Also Wet

A soaking wet forecast for West/Southwest Europe trends wetter overnight. Excessive rains and flooding emerge. A persistent deep upper trough off Southwest Europe is the culprit. A transient Madden Julian oscillation across the tropical Atlantic enhances the rainfall.

03/22/2024, 8:35 am EDT

North-central U.S. Blizzard Early Next Week Biases U.S. Medium-range Forecasts Cooler

A blizzard is forecast for the North-central U.S. early next week featuring 10-20 in. of snow, high wind, and frigid late season temperatures. The expansive snow cover helps to bias the West/North-central U.S. medium-range forecasts into early April cooler than normal.

03/20/2024, 3:58 pm EDT

The March 2024 Global Marine Heat Wave Discussion and Outlook

During the past decade marine heat waves (MHW) have dramatically increased their presence, aerial coverage, and duration poleward of the deep tropics in both hemispheres. The influence on climate is dramatic and warrants application of a 10-year optimum climate normal (OCN) both to generating seasonal forecasts and explaining climate regime observations on an annual, seasonal, and monthly basis. In February 2024, MHW’s occupied 38% of the global oceans ranking 5th during all months since 1991 according to NOAA.

03/20/2024, 12:23 pm EDT

Recent Heat Causing Regenerating/Accelerating Drought Northern Argentina to Southwest Brazil

During the past week, extreme heat has attacked Northern Argentina to Southwest Brazil where weekly temperature anomalies are in the +4C to +8C range. As a result, sudden drying of soils has developed and accelerated in Northern Argentina, Paraguay, and Southwest Brazil.

03/19/2024, 12:48 pm EDT

Hotter Than Normal MAY-SEP U.S. CDD Forecasts

The preliminary U.S. population weight monthly CDD anomaly forecast for April through October 2024 indicates a similar pattern to the past 3 years: Near normal early in the season, increasing anomalous heat through mid-season which can ease slightly late in the season.