03/31/2024, 10:36 am EDT

Brazil and (More) Europe Rains Ahead!

The South America 7-day percent of normal rainfall observations reveal a much drier trend across Argentina while patchy heavy rain areas are developing in Brazil. The 15-day percent of normal rainfall forecast across South America by ECM ENS stays wet in Brazil.
03/28/2024, 5:40 am EDT

Shifting MJO Influence on Australia, South America, and Europe Rainfall

The Madden Julian oscillation (MJO) has been very active since last September. The 5th transient MJO across the equatorial Pacific recently ended and MJO is now shifting across the tropical Atlantic and heading back to home base in the Indian Ocean tropics in early April. The 15-day forecast utilizing all models indicates an eastward shift reaching Maritime Continent in 2 weeks with marginally moderate intensity is likely.
03/27/2024, 10:33 am EDT

Reworking North Atlantic Basin Seasonal Tropical Cyclone Climatology

Climate Impact Company has renewed seasonal North Atlantic tropical cyclone climatology for 1950-2023 for both El Nino southern oscillation (ENSO) and tropical North Atlantic (TNA) index phase and intensity. The climatology is based on ENSO and TNA index for AUG/SEP/OCT of each year.