07/31/2026, 1:42 pm EDT
U.S. soil moisture anomalies analysis continues to reveal torrid drought across much of the U.S. The 15-day SPP forecast is very dry and encourages evolving hot weather.
07/31/2026, 1:38 pm EDT
An area of thunderstorm activity across warmer than normal water rests northeast of the Bahamas. Development is not expected through early next week. However, a tropical wave is forecast to move into the waters east of the Bahamas and northwestward from there during the 6-10-day period possibly becoming a tropical cyclone.
07/30/2026, 6:53 am EDT
The ongoing campaign by Climate Impact Company promoting marine heatwaves as catalysts to drought and heat continues. Summer of 2026 has certainly produced two extreme examples: 1.) The Western Europe heatwaves and 2.) The Western U.S. heatwaves.
07/30/2026, 5:03 am EDT
The U.S. population weight CDD forecast sizzles to a consensus forecast of 95 for the week of August 6-12. All models, except for CMC ENS, are agreeable. If so, August 6-12 will be the hottest week of summer 2026 across the U.S.
07/29/2026, 5:52 am EDT
Upper ocean heat east of the Dateline is the warmest on record with resurgent warming observed in recent weeks. Subsurface temperature anomaly analysis reveals +10C at 100-meter depth, easily the warmest on record.
07/28/2026, 8:33 am EDT
AI WX Next 2 is used to identify the emerging Europe heatwave this week spreading eastward next week. ECM ENS is used in the 11-15-day period maintaining a Southern Europe heatwave. The Southern Europe heatwave is likely to persist through August.
07/28/2026, 8:25 am EDT
Showers and thundershowers for the Western U.S. Corn Belt this week. However, combining GFS and ECM renders a hot and dry pattern in the medium range. In the 16-30-day period, the potential for widespread heat and dryness could persist according to GFS ENS, the number 1 model for this time period during the past 30 days.
07/27/2026, 9:18 am EDT
The East Pacific basin is active including Hurricane Fausto east-northeast of Hawaii and Category-5 Major Hurricane Genevieve, the first category-5 major hurricane since 2024. Genevieve is intense due to passage over an immense marine heatwave. Latent heat release from Genevieve forces a high amplitude high pressure ridge cresting over the Southwest U.S. this weekend. Each system tracks west-northwestward weakening the second half of this week.
07/26/2026, 8:45 am EDT
Slightly more than 25% of the months of this century have produced an El Nino climate as of mid-2026, about 2/3 the amount observed 1965-95. Consequently, ENSO is a leading contributor to periods of dry climate across the U.S. July 2026 is the 3rd time this century, D1-D4 drought conditions eclipsed 60% of the U.S.
07/25/2026, 7:00 am EDT
ERCOT System record demand this week is likely eclipsed by a substantially hotter weather day occurring late JUL/early AUG based on the latest 15-day ERCOT population weight daily average temperature forecast. During late July Dallas roars to 106F and Houston 101F guaranteeing a much hotter system temperature average compared to the past few days.
07/25/2026, 6:54 am EDT
Another heatwave is developing for West and Central Europe. The extreme heat intensifies during late July/early August. Slowly, the heatwave shifts eastward and into Western Russia and the Black Sea region in August. Some relief follows for Western Europe (except Portugal/Span where heat is maintained).
07/23/2026, 5:38 am EDT
At 5AM EDT, Tropical Storm Bertha was located at 29.0N/92.2W or about 95 miles southeast of Lake Charles, LA. Bertha is moving west at 13 mph with top wind near 45 mph and central pressure 1003 MB. Bertha has reformed off the central coast of Louisiana. However, all the action is in the southwest quadrant of the storm where extreme rain from intense thunderstorm activity is taking place.