A dangerous late July/early August lengthy heatwave coupled with dry weather event is forecast for much of the Great Plains and Europe based on the latest ECMWF outlooks. Significant drought expansion and intensification will develop for both regions.

Soil moisture anomalies analysis reveals a large dry-to-drought scenario across Europe. The core of the drought is in France and Western Romania. The 10-day rainfall anomaly outlook by ECMWF indicates widespread drier than normal conditions. Week 2-4 forecasts rebuild Central Europe heat intensifying drought.

A classic El Nino style climate pattern emerges in late July...excessive rainfall in Southeast Brazil while areas to the north are arid. Included is ongoing unusual warmth for central continent.

Madden Julian oscillation (MJO) is in a favorable location to produce abundant convective rains in the U.S. The NOAA/WPC 5-day quantitative precipitation forecast identifies the excessive rainfall associated with T.D. 2 in the Northeast Gulf, East Coast heavy rains, and a wet Southwest U.S. monsoon pattern.

1997 and 2015 produced rapidly strengthening intense El Nino climate patterns. In the U.S., the temperature bias during August is cool across most of the eastern half of the U.S. while dryness dominates the Gulf States and Mid-Atlantic region. The 2015 El Nino weights twice due to the much warmer global oceans compared to 1997. In 2026, global oceans are much warmer than 2015 lending a warm bias to the cool analog.

Relative Nino34 SSTA forecasts using the NOAA CFS V2, ECMWF, and POAMA outlooks each indicate a record strength El Nino for later this year easily surpassing the R-N34 SSTA of +2.41 observed in November 2015.