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Highlight: Historic CDD Count for Summer 2026 in Europe
Discussion: The projected bas 18C cooling degree days for London/Heathrow and Paris/Orly for meteorological summer 2026 is the hottest in the 1980-2026 climatology. At London/Heathrow CDD projection for JUN/JUL/AUG 2026 by Climate Impact Company is 265 (Fig. 1). Comparably hot observations are 240 (2018), 239 (2022), and 235 (2025). At Paris/Orly, the CDD projection is 488 by far the hottest value since 1980 (Fig. 2). Previously, summer of 2003 was hottest (385 CDD) followed by last year (366 CDD) and 2022 (352 CDD).
The catalyst for extreme heat in 2022, 2025, and 2026 is the tendency for upper-level low-pressure troughs across or near the North Atlantic warm hole (NAWH) to Greenland forcing a downstream compensating upper ridge causing the extreme heat across Europe. The set-up described also encourages North Africa heat to expand northward into the ridge position. Of course, the upper ridge patterns are (also) enhanced by intense marine heatwaves (MHW) which are currently at record strength in the Mediterranean Sea.
The stronger NAWH nowadays is caused by the slowing of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) combined with accelerated springtime ice melt due to warmer oceans and atmosphere of the polar latitudes from The Greenland Icesheet. This condition is currently semi-permanent and likely to repeat in subsequent summer seasons of this decade.
Fig. 1: Observed June and projected July/August base 18C CDD for London.
Fig. 2: Observed June and projected July/August base 18C CDD for Paris.