10/09/2026, 9:12 am EDT
Excessive rainfall and severe thunderstorms associated with the remains of inland-moving Isaias and Rachel are on display in the Southeast and West into early next week.
10/09/2026, 9:09 am EDT
During the past 7 days, expected wet weather across the southern half of Brazil has developed while wet soil moisture conditions in Argentina have expanded northward.
10/09/2026, 6:27 am EDT
At 5AM EDT, Hurricane Isaias was located at 26.4N/88.0W or about 200 miles south-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River. Isaias is moving north-northeast at 15 mph with top wind near 110 mph. Isaias will become a major hurricane shortly.
10/08/2026, 10:31 am EDT
Standout climate signals for during and just beyond mid-month include the arctic oscillation which is moderate-to-strong positive and represents evolution of the polar vortex.
10/08/2026, 6:00 am EDT
Overnight, Isaias gained intensity and is moving slightly faster. Morning weather satellite view reveals a concentric strong thunderstorm signature with additional heavy convection extending to the east plus a “tail” into the lower latitudes. This signature indicates additional intensification is likely. The upper shear is immense northwest and north of the hurricane. However, the upper shear is not directly affecting Isaias (yet).
10/07/2026, 7:18 am EDT
At 5AM EDT, Isaias became the season’s 9th tropical storm. However, this time, Isaias will be able to take advantage of the very warm Gulf of America surface and continue to intensify rapidly into a hurricane by tonight.
10/06/2026, 12:14 pm EDT
Anticipated wetter pattern for Argentina to Southeast Brazil is evolving. Wet weather is enhanced in Northwest Argentina, Southeast Brazil, and parts of east and south Argentina during the past week. Wetter soils are vividly indicated Argentina to Southeast Brazil.
10/06/2026, 12:12 pm EDT
Most striking regarding the latest ECMWF “monthlies” DEC/JAN/FEB 2026-27 climate outlook across North America are the “atmospheric rivers” projected into California and the Southeast/East U.S. Coast and the exceptionally mild Canadian climate which will keep the Northern U.S. without snow cover much of the winter season. The Southern U.S. storm track can generate locally regional chilly air masses.
10/05/2026, 2:09 pm EDT
Global soil moisture anomalies analysis from September 2026 reveals many drought areas including Mexico into the Southern U.S., Northern Brazil, Central tropical Africa, Southern India, and parts of Indonesia plus the West and East Coast of Australia. The most prolific drought is in Europe. Northern Russia is (also) in a drought condition although easing during recent weeks.
10/05/2026, 2:06 pm EDT
The upper ocean heat anomalies from September 2026 continued to warm to unprecedented levels. Anomalies are, by far, the strongest on record and identify the exceptional potential energy to fuel Super El Nino. The weekly SSTA observations in the Nino regions (also) convey the steady warming to record levels. The Nino12 SSTA region, off the northwest coast of South America, is at an unheard of +5.1C anomaly last week.
10/05/2026, 9:24 am EDT
A new tropical disturbance is forming in the Bay of Campeche. NOAA/NHC indicates 30% chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 48 hours but has increased risk to 70% after 2 days.
10/02/2026, 9:08 am EDT
All the U.S. wet weather shifts to the Southeast U.S. and Florida in the latest NOAA/WPC 7-day outlook. Prohibitive rain is indicated on the immediate Gulf Coasty but no tropical cyclone activity.