There is a cooler forecast change for Europe in the 11-15-day period as indicated by the 15-day population weight average daily temperature forecast (Fig. 1). Combing GFS and ECM yield chilly temperature anomalies in the 11-15-day period across Southeast Europe (Fig. 2). The ECM ENS indicates widespread risk of <32F/0C in Central Europe eastward in the 11-15-day period.

Lack of rainfall accelerating drought has adversely affected Indonesia palm oil, India wheat, and most recently cocoa growing areas in tropical West Africa. The palm oil damage is devastating with drought encouraging fires and record low water levels. The Indian wet monsoon was about 12% of normal enabling drought in west and south wheat growing areas. Cocoa growing areas in West Africa tropics recently developed quickly.

Graph Cast forecasts dangerous dominant subtropical high pressure early to middle November which could cause over-achieving heat for much of Australia. In this scenario drought in the southwest and east portion of the continent worsens.

Two ALERTS are issued for next week. A likely scenario is the chilly air mass moving across the Northeast States this weekend pushing across the warm western North Atlantic basin causing a low-pressure area to form which winds into a subtropical storm later next week. The slow mover stays offshore but causes strong onshore wind along the East Coast leading to some flooding and certainly beach erosion. A second ALERT is issued for a low-risk tropical cyclone generation in the Caribbean Sea later next week.