Lack of Rain Indonesia, India, and (now) Tropical West Africa
10/19/2026, 10:23 am EDT
Climate Impact Company Daily Feature
Issued: Thursday October 22, 2026
Highlight: Turning chilly Europe days 11-15.
Fig. 1: The Europe 15-day population weight daily average temperature forecast.
Discussion: Markets are hyper-focused on cold weather threats as the northern hemisphere cold season (NOV-MAR) is about to get underway. There is some arctic air across above normal snow cover in Northeast Asia peaking in the 6-10-day period, but that air mass is likely to stay north of China. Negative North Atlantic oscillation (-NAO), a common cold weather producer for Eastern North America and Europe, is not present. However, stepping away from +NAO is indicated during the next 15 days and one model, ECMWF, indicates emergence of -NAO in the 11-15-day period. Consequently, there is a cooler forecast change for Europe in the 11-15-day period as indicated by the 15-day population weight average daily temperature forecast (Fig. 1). Combing GFS and ECM yield chilly temperature anomalies in the 11-15-day period across Southeast Europe (Fig. 2). The ECM ENS indicates widespread risk of <32F/0C in Central Europe eastward in the 11-15-day period (Fig. 3).
Fig. 2-3: GFS+ECM 11-15-day temperature anomalies forecast for Europe and ECM ENS risk of <32F/0C forecast for the 11-15-day period.