Emergence of the strong El Nino climate is seen in the evolution of strong positive phase global atmospheric angular momentum (+GLAAM) by late JUN/early JUL. +GLAAM is characteristic of a strong El Nino climate as westerlies aloft in the middle latitudes increase due to the interaction between increasing El Nino convection in the deep tropics and the dynamic forcing on mid-latitude upper airflow. The global wind oscillation (GWO) forecast indicates most of the forcing is in the eastern hemisphere (phase_5, phase_6, and phase_7).

The NOAA/CPC Seasonal Drought Outlook based on the 90-day long-lead climate forecast indicates the Southwest U.S. Drought eases while drought over the Northwest and Western Great Plains expands adding the Coastal Northwest, Upper Midwest, and Interior Texas. Mid-Atlantic States maintain their drought while New England and Florida drought conditions will erode.