Worse-case Scenario for Europe as Southwest Europe Heat Regenerates, Pounces on France in Medium range

Climate Impact Company Early AG Market ALERT

Issued: Monday June 29, 2026

Searing heat for the Midwest States this week; Worse-case scenario for Europe as Southwest Europe heat regenerates and pounces on France medium range.

Discussion: Scoring number 1 during the past 2 weeks with a near perfect skill score for Midwest U.S. temperature is the Operational Canadian (CMC) model. CMC reveals 5-day temperature anomalies of >10F across the Midwest U.S. this week (Fig. 1). Coupled with high humidity, lack of cooling recovery at night, causing accelerating heat stress for each day, these conditions will cause crops to suffer. GFS offers heavy rain centered near Omaha, NE in the 6-10-day period while other models are not indicating much rain for the Midwest heatwave zone through the first third of July. In fact, ECM maintains hot weather for 15 days while other models ease the heat and GFS turns cool in the extended range. Low confidence for the medium range forecast to start the week in the Midwest U.S.

In Europe, a worse-case scenario is unfolding. The late June heatwave core has shifted across Eastern Europe this week while beginning to regenerate in Southwest Europe/Northwest Africa (Fig. 2). In the medium range, combining GFS and ECM, the Southwest Europe heat expands and intensifies reaching U.K. days 6-10 (Fig. 3) and continues to expand eastward in the 11-15-day forecast (Fig. 4). The hottest weather within this new heatwave expansion is across France (Fig. 5).

Heavy, possibly excessive rainfall is forecast this week in Australia centered on Victoria (Fig. 6).

Fig. 1-2: CMC 1-5-day temperature anomaly forecast across the U.S. AG Belt, and equal combination of GFS and ECM to project the Europe 1-5-day temperature anomaly forecast.

Fig. 3-4: Equal combination of GFS and ECM to project the 6-10-day and 11-15-day Europe temperature anomaly forecast.

Fig. 5: The population weight 15-day Europe daily average temperature utilizing all models through the next 15 days plus 30-day history.

Fig. 6: ECM 5-day rainfall forecast for Australia.