Heavy Rain Southeast Brazil Ahead!

Climate Impact Company Early AG Market ALERT

Issued: Monday July 20, 2026

Highlight: Streak of rain Central Great Plains midweek, otherwise limited rainfall (and hot) in 15-day outlook. Europe is cooler but still dry.

Fig. 1-2: ECM 15-day rainfall forecast across the U.S. AG Belt plus GFS dry duration projection.

Discussion: ECM projects a potent severe weather outbreak midweek centered on Kansas City and vicinity (Fig. 1). However, otherwise rainfall is sparse in the 15-day outlook. Consecutive hours without rain extend past 10 days in both the far northern and southern Great Plains (Fig. 2). The Southwest Power Pool (SPP) portion of the U.S. electric grid (representing the Great Plains) indicates briefly cooler weather this week followed by the hottest temperatures of summer 2026 during the medium range (Fig. 3).

Fig. 3: The SPP region (Great Plains) 15-day population weight daily average temperature forecast.

The AIFS 15-day percent normal rainfall forecast indicates that despite cooler temperatures, the majority of emerging Europe drought zone observes BELOW to MUCH BELOW normal rainfall (Fig. 4). Wet weather continues in the Black Sea region and the Europe West Coast gains shower activity. The cooler regime lasts 10 days with potential for re-warming in the 11-15-day period (Fig. 5).

In Australia, El Nino dryness expands across the continent in the latest 15-day outlook (Fig. 6) while El Nino downpours affect Southeast Brazil into early August (Fig. 7).

Fig. 4: The AIFS 15-day percent of normal rainfall forecast across Europe.

Fig. 5: The Europe population weight 15-day average daily temperature forecast utilizing all models.

Fig. 6-7: Australia and Brazil 15-day rainfall forecasts.