09/30/2026, 7:22 pm EDT
Currently, global oceanic aerial coverage of marine heatwaves (MHW) is 38% which is an increase of about 13% from early this year. NOAA states that by late December, the (global) value increases to a record 45%.
09/29/2026, 9:36 am EDT
Upper trough stretched across Northern Argentina produces two expansive areas of rainfall including western and southern Argentina plus expanding Southeast Brazil. Argentina is cooler than normal.
09/29/2026, 8:40 am EDT
The Nino SSTA regions in the east-central and far east equatorial Pacific Ocean continue to warm. Currently, Nino34, Nino3, and Nino12 have shattered previous record warm SSTA produced by the Super El Nino episodes of 1982-83, 1997-98, and 2015-16.
09/29/2026, 8:35 am EDT
Traditionally, the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) is based on a simple comparison between sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) in the Northeast Pacific (north of 20N) and Northwest Pacific. Warmer Northwest Pacific than cooler Northeast Pacific SSTA regimes = -PDO and visa versa. The entire 2020’s observed persistent cool phase of the Pacific decadal oscillation (-PDO). The AUG-26 PDO was -1.84. The International multi-model ensemble (IMME) global SSTA forecast for DEC/JAN/FEB 2026-27 maintains -PDO. But! The lengthiest and strongest -PDO (of the 2020’s) on record is not the same as a conventional -PDO regime.
09/27/2026, 10:29 am EDT
Category-3 Major Hurricane Polo is forecast to initiate a northeast turn toward the Baja California Coast tonight, cross Baja California as a hurricane tomorrow, and gradually weaken crossing Northern Mexico Tuesday. Polo is the strongest (892 MB) northern hemisphere major hurricane of 2026 edging Major Typhoon Sinlaku (896 MB). A significant contributor to Polo’s intensity is passage across Marine Heatwave NEP25A which initiated last year and has produced the warmest anomalous ocean temperatures off the Southwest Coast of North America on record.
09/25/2026, 1:54 pm EDT
The Northeast U.S. weekend storm continues to trend downhill in the Mid-Atlantic States. Highest wind is across Long Island to the New Jersey Coast tonight and stays that way tomorrow. Gusts on the coast should exceed 60 mph in pots with high waves, storm surge, and flooding.
09/25/2026, 8:55 am EDT
Crops at risk of 2026-27 drought are northern Brazil corn, Northern Brazil palm oil (which also includes torrid drought affecting Western Indonesia palm oil, and Northern Brazil soybeans. Wet climate affects most of Brazil wheat and coffee.
09/25/2026, 8:50 am EDT
Drought is “sneaking up” in Australia. In the East, dry soil conditions are expanding and now include the Southeast Coast. The Northwest Australia drought us strengthening a southern reach to Coastal Southwest Australia. The 10-day outlook combing GFS and ECM indicates significant rain in southeast/south portions of Western Australia and possibly the Southeast Coast while elsewhere is dry.
09/24/2026, 5:56 am EDT
The GFS and CMC ENS are strongest with negative arctic oscillation (-AO) index forecasts for the week of October 2-8 while other models are milder and indicate very weak upper troughs in the East. In fact, the 00Z GFS is alone projecting a buoyant high pressure (blocking) ridge over Greenland. Is the blocking ridge singularly forecast by GFS possible? Yes! Due to the potential latent heat released poleward by up to 7 tropical systems in the northern hemisphere.
09/23/2026, 5:56 am EDT
The Europe/Western Russia month 1-5 outlook is based on regional SSTA patterns affecting Europe particularly the East Pacific Super El Nino and resurgent North Atlantic warm hole south of Greenland. Favored is a mild winter across Europe. The risk of negative North Atlantic oscillation events causing cold weather regimes during the winter season is below normal. However, periods of cold and snow are likely in nearby Northwest Eurasia to Western Russia and will create periods when monitoring for cold from the east, especially in January, is important.
09/22/2026, 4:52 pm EDT
Comparing 5 operational models with 7 AI models forecasting 2-meter temperature across North America utilizing CWG/SVWM anomaly correlation skill score (0 to 1 scale) during calendar-summer 2026 indicates operational models out-performed AI models by a small margin.
09/22/2026, 7:11 am EDT
The North Atlantic basin remains quiet as (calendar) autumn begins. Upper shear streaks prevent organization of thunderstorm activity in the Bahamas and keep the central North Atlantic ALL CLEAR. Two tropical waves in the outer North Atlantic may organize while turning north, the second just entering the North Atlantic basin this morning, has the best chance. Tropical Storm Faye is barely discernable and weakens drifting west-to-southwestward.