During Calendar Summer 2026. Operational Models Edge AI in Skill
09/22/2026, 4:52 pm EDT
Climate Impact Company Week 2-4 Outlook
South America
Issued: Friday September 25, 2026
Highlight: Crops at risk of 2026-27 drought are northern Brazil corn, Northern Brazil palm oil (which also includes torrid drought affecting Western Indonesia palm oil, and Northern Brazil soybeans. Wet climate affects most of Brazil wheat and coffee.
Charts of the day: 7-day rainfall and daily soil moisture ranking.
Discussion: During the past 7 days, the wet regime in Southeast Brazil has widened while Southeast Brazil soil moisture continues to increase significantly.
Week-2 Ahead (October 4-11, 2026): Wetter/cooler Argentina; Rainy Southeast Brazil.
Discussion: Upper-level low pressure trough cools Argentina and brings wet weather across Northern Argentina to Southeast Brazil (and Paraguay). North-central and Northwest Brazil are hot and dry.
Week-3 Ahead (October 11-18, 2026): Cooler Argentina; Stays wet Southeast Brazil.
Discussion: The Argentina upper trough is stronger therefore a cooler advance reaching Southeast Brazil while the anomalous heat shifts farther northward in Brazil. Southeast Brazil remains the warm/cool (air mass) clash causing additional rainfall.
Week-4 Ahead (October 18-25, 2026): Persistence.
Discussion: AI Graph Cast is a “machine learning” model, i.e. a sophisticated analog. The forecast is biased by the persistence of El Nino-related cool upper trough patterns across Argentina. The dry bias, and drought producer, is across the west/northwest portion of Brazil. Crops at risk of 2026-27 drought are northern Brazil corn, Northern Brazil palm oil (which also includes torrid drought affecting Western Indonesia palm oil, and Northern Brazil soybeans. Wet climate affects most of Brazil wheat and coffee.