February 2024 - Climate Impact Company

02/29/2024, 12:53 pm EST

Smokehouse Creek Fires Receive Synoptic Scale High Wind

The Smokehouse Creek fire continues to expand and intensify primarily located in northern Texas but now reaching into Oklahoma. High wind is generated by the fire enhanced by synoptic scale wind this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon averaging 20-25 mph with gusts to 40 mph from the south today and west tomorrow.

02/29/2024, 8:24 am EST

NOAA Experimental Long-term Multi-indicator Drought Index

Long-term drought concerns in the U.S. identified by the (experimental) long-term multi-indicator drought index which combine both short and long-term (up to 5 years) precipitation trend and water from snowmelt include the 4-Corners region including the Texas Panhandle, the U.S. Corn Belt, southern Mississippi Valley, and the Northwest U.S.

02/28/2024, 12:53 pm EST

Midday 12Z GFS Unloads >12 In. of Rain California and Alabama

The 12Z GFS produced excessive rainfall on the West Coast centered on California and the north coast of the Gulf of Mexico centered near Mobile, AL. The amount forecast is for over one foot of rain.

02/27/2024, 7:29 pm EST

Is New Wet Bias Over Western Australia Inspired by Warming Southeast Indian Ocean Tropical Waters?

The tropical Indian Ocean SSTA have shifted very warm. The 2023 +IOD pattern has ended. Although West Indian Ocean SSTA is still quite warm (+0.85C), the east-southeast tropics are now extremely warm (+1.38C). Indicated is a weak -IOD signature which may help to explain the unexpected wet bias to Australia climate, give the El Nino pattern.

02/27/2024, 7:18 pm EST

The Super Warm Atlantic (and Global) Tropical SST’s

The warmest SSTA on record for both the tropical South Atlantic and North Atlantic are occurring simultaneously. The daily tropical South Atlantic (TSA) index is a robust +1.36C while the tropical North Atlantic (TNA) index is an impressive +1.48C. Combined with El Nino warming across the tropical Pacific and an impressive SSTA average of +1.12C across the IOD region of the Indian Ocean, the global tropical oceans are the warmest observed within the confines of historical data.

02/26/2024, 5:59 am EST

Possible Shift in the Indian Ocean Dipole?

The Indian Ocean tropical waters are very warm compared to normal. Recently, the eastern Indian ocean tropics have warmed significantly and are now warmer than the western Indian Ocean tropics. Analogs show a similar regime following mature El Nino phase during February 1998, 2010, and 2016. What followed during MAR/APR/MAY was a precipitation climate reminiscent of negative Indian Ocean dipole.

02/25/2024, 3:26 pm EST

East-central U.S. Soils Trending Drier

The daily soil moisture anomalies across the U.S. reveal two trend lines during February. The Midwest States are turning drier. Additionally, the Texas Panhandle drought is worsening, and the Mid-south States are encountering drier soil conditions.

02/25/2024, 11:44 am EST

U.S. Cold Season 2023-24 Projected as 5th Warmest This Century

The estimated U.S. gas population weight HDD for the 2023-24 cold season (NOV-MAR) is 3478 HDD (Fig. 1). The value represents the 5th warmest cold season of this century. The 3 warmest cold seasons of this century in the U.S. were 2001-02 (3345 HDD), 2011-12 (3224 HDD), and 2015-16 (3269 HDD).

02/25/2024, 8:26 am EST

Schedule of North Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Forecasts for 2024

The global climate is expected to shift toward and into a La Nina regime during the 2024 North Atlantic and coupled with forecasts of very warm SST across the North Atlantic, 2024 has the chance to produce record-strength (and amount) of tropical cyclones. This statement is a likely sentiment of the government, academic, and private sector outlooks issued this spring. Climate Impact Company…March 28 Tropical Storm Risk/U.K…April 8 Colorado State University…April 4 NOAA…Around May 23.

02/22/2024, 8:06 am EST

Extreme (Cold and Warm) Temperature in North America Next Week

The U.S. pattern is fast-moving and produces dramatic thermal contrast from one air mass to the next. An example of the extremes is indicated by ECMWF for next Tuesday afternoon when arctic air surges into Southwest Canada featuring temperatures of -20F to -30F while ahead of the arctic front record warm low 80’s extend to Kansas.

02/22/2024, 8:03 am EST

Current Global Soil Moisture Conditions

Current soil moisture conditions across primary agriculture regions feature wet conditions in Europe/Western Russia and much of Asia. Western Australia is in drought while eastern sections are unexpectedly wet despite the El Nino summer. Argentina trend is wetter again while many parts of Brazil stay in drought. In the Midwest U.S. the 2023 drought is hanging on.

02/21/2024, 7:02 am EST

Using Multivariate ENSO Index, The 2023-24 El Nino Was Very Weak

Multivariate ENSO index (MEI) is an index used to identify the atmospheric response of the sea surface temperature (and pressure) anomalies in the Pacific equatorial region. The 2023-24 El Nino episode, according to MEI, was the 3rd weakest (MEI = 0.68) since 1979 despite moderate to strong oceanic intensity using conventional Nino34 index.