AI FORECASTNET V2 is forecasting a new arctic air mass generating over Alaska and Western Canada due to additional stratospheric warming in the medium range. A careful eye on whether this new arctic mass may release into the Western U.S. in the extended range. Meanwhile, despite the warmth in U.S. and Europe for late winter, much of Asia is quite cold!

The Climate Impact Company constructed analog 6-month precipitation forecast for the U.S. coupled with current soil moisture and trend yields the second half of summer U.S. drought risk areas. Most prominent and agreeable to the NOAA CAS forecast is Georgia and Florida followed by Texas. The CIC-CA projection adds the Northwest U.S. and northern Great Lakes. The Midwest U.S. is likely to avoid a 2024 drought.

Stratospheric warming leading to evolution of a large arctic air mass remains in the forecast for Eurasia. Latest indications are the air mass releases southeastward into China in the 1-15-day period rather than cross-polar into North America. Consequently, the U.S. gas population weight HDD forecast is revised milder for the second half of February.

Conflicting signals in February regarding ENSO as sharp negative phase southern oscillation index (-SOI) reveals the El Nino climate for the 2023-24 episode is peaking while the subsurface equatorial Pacific Ocean is cooling rapidly as ocean warming to sustain El Nino is fading fast. The outlook maintains a rapid decline in El Nino intensity during the next 2-4 months with neutral ENSO likely by MAY/JUN followed by further Pacific cooling causing La Nina to form by JUL/AUG. La Nina may last into 2026.

The surge of MJO convection past the Dateline in the tropical Pacific helped to motivate a Pacific “atmospheric river” storm track bringing “bomb cyclones” to California. Speculated is the latent heat release from this MJO episode may have traveled upward and poleward in the atmosphere to trigger a 3rd stratospheric warming event in the polar region. Of course, the consequence of stratospheric warming is generation of arctic air at ground level.