Strengthening drought was observed during NOV/DEC/JAN 2023-24 in Central Brazil, Northwest Africa, the Middle East, and Central Indonesia. El Nino 2023-24 has shifted past the mature stage. The outlook is for rapid deceleration to neutral ENSO during MAR/APR/MAY 2024. Drought concern is highest across Central Brazil to Chile, the Middle East, and South Africa. A climate pattern change to a wetter scenario is projected for Southeast Asia and Indonesia.

The day-10 temperature anomaly forecast at 10 MB reveals a stratospheric warming episode over northwestern North America. The warming causes an arctic air mass to develop over Northwest Russia in the 6-10-day period. On day-15, the stratospheric warming is widening and, frankly, looks scary as widespread arctic air is normally produced by this signature. However, for now, the “most likely” scenario is arctic air moves east across Eurasia and is shifting southeastward toward China much like the outbreak in December.