Midday 12Z GFS Unloads >12 In. of Rain California and Alabama

The Super Warm Atlantic (and Global) Tropical SST’s

02/27/2024, 7:18 pm EST

NOAA Experimental Long-term Multi-indicator Drought Index

02/29/2024, 8:24 am EST

02/28/2024, 12:53 pm EST

Highlight: 12Z GFS unloads >12 in. of rain on California and Alabama Coast next 15 days!

Fig. 1-2: The 12Z GFS 15-day precipitation amount forecasts.

Fig. 3-4: The 12Z GFS medium-range temperature anomaly forecast.

Discussion: The 12Z GFS produced excessive rainfall on the West Coast centered on California and the north coast of the Gulf of Mexico centered near Mobile, AL (Fig. 1-2). The amount forecast is for over one foot of rain. The U.S. medium-range forecasts show no sign of change as the warm bias remains locked-in over the eastern 60% of the U.S. (Fig. 3-4).

EIA End	Forecast	12-Hour Change	24-Hour Change	30-Year Normal	10-Year Normal
2/29	136.2	0.0	+0.6	175.8	174.6
3/7	116.1	-0.1	+3.7	163.6	160.3
3/14	97.9	-23.2	-21.0	150.8	145.6

Table 1: The 12Z GFS U.S. gas population weight HDD forecast compared to 12 and 24 hours ago.