News
07/31/2022, 7:13 pm EDT

Madden Julian Oscillation Presence Enhances Excessive Rainfall for India

The Madden Julian oscillation 15-day forecast indicates presence in the tropical Indian Ocean which enhances extreme rainfall risk to India where >10 in. of rain is forecast in the latest 15-day GFS forecast.
07/31/2022, 7:01 pm EDT

Latest Madden Julian Oscillation Update: MJO has presence in the tropical Indian Ocean first half of August.

Highlight: MJO presence in the Indian Ocean leads to Extreme Rain in India. Fig. 1: Madden Julian oscillation 15-day forecast by all models indicates presence of phase_2/phase_3 (Indian Ocean) presence. Discussion: The Madden Julian oscillation (MJO) gains presence in the Indian Ocean tropics and is likely to last at least 2 weeks based on the majority of operational model forecasts (Fig. 1). The immediate climate impact of MJO P2/P3 is excessive rainfall forecasts (>10 in.) across parts of India over the next 2 weeks (Fig. 2). The rainfall forecasts indicate major flooding from persistent tropical downpours. Some of the wet climate pattern extends to northeastern Africa and possibly parts of Australia. While convective currents inspire heavy thunderstorms and flooding in India, northeast Africa and possibly Australia a massive area of subsidence is present during this time in the central tropical Pacific Ocean. This pattern promotes regenerating La Nina for the first half of August as the subsidence pattern near the Dateline causes trade winds to increase to up-well cooler subsurface waters. Fig. 2: MJO wet influence on India climate the next two weeks as depicted by the GFS model.             
07/31/2022, 6:59 pm EDT

Latest Madden Julian Oscillation Update: MJO has presence in the tropical Indian Ocean first half of August.

Highlight: MJO presence in the Indian Ocean leads to Extreme Rain in India. Fig. 1: Madden Julian oscillation 15-day forecast by all models indicates presence of phase_2/phase_3 (Indian Ocean) presence. Discussion: The Madden Julian oscillation (MJO) gains presence in the Indian Ocean tropics and is likely to last at least 2 weeks based on the majority of operational model forecasts (Fig. 1). The immediate climate impact of MJO P2/P3 is excessive rainfall forecasts (>10 in.) across parts of India over the next 2 weeks (Fig. 2). The rainfall forecasts indicate major flooding from persistent tropical downpours. Some of the wet climate pattern extends to northeastern Africa and possibly parts of Australia. While convective currents inspire heavy thunderstorms and flooding in India, northeast Africa and possibly Australia a massive area of subsidence is present during this time in the central tropical Pacific Ocean. This pattern promotes regenerating La Nina for the first half of August as the subsidence pattern near the Dateline causes trade winds to increase to up-well cooler subsurface waters. Fig. 2: MJO wet influence on India climate the next two weeks as depicted by the GFS model.             
07/31/2022, 12:07 pm EDT

Focus on Nebraska/Iowa Rapid Drought Development Risk

The 15-day hot and dry weather forecast for the Great Plains featuring some excessive heat coupled with vast worsening dryness for both shallow and deep layer soil moisture increases the risk for rapidly developing drought for the first half of August.