07/25/2022, 12:43 pm EDT

Strengthening Marine Heat Wave NEP22A Helping to Shape U.S. Pattern

Recently, waters off the West Coast have cooled dramatically. The release of the latent heat involved in this process may have amplified the upper ridge pattern roasting the Northwest U.S. All of the warming of the ocean surface during the past 2+ weeks is north of Hawaii where Marine Heat Wave NEP22A is intensifying.
07/25/2022, 5:05 am EDT

Cold Front Stalls – Drenches Mid-south and Tennessee Valley Mid-to-late Week!

A stalled cold front will trigger excessive rainfall across the Mid-south U.S. to the Carolinas midweek through the weekend. GFS indicates >5 in. of rain in Arkansas and Tennessee while ECM projects higher amounts. Flooding is expected with serval damaging wind events as the heavy rains break the recent heat.
07/22/2022, 12:04 pm EDT

3rd Year of La Nina Rainfall Climatology for North and South America

Forecasts for a 3rd consecutive La Nina year are confident. 3rd La Nina years are rare. Using the operational Nino index (ONI) for 1950-2022 yields 3 ENSO regimes (1956, 1975 and 2000) in which a 3rd consecutive La Nina year occurred. In that 3rd year of La Nina, widespread dryness affects the Central to Southeast U.S. and Brazil.