07/20/2022, 4:50 am EDT

MJO/Very Warm Mediterranean Sea Maintain Hot/Dry Europe Pattern

The intense heat in U.K. fades. However, GFS trends hotter/drier in the 15-day forecast. The anomalous heat remains widespread while shifting slightly eastward. The heat core moves into East/Southeast Europe to finish July.
07/20/2022, 4:48 am EDT

Wetter Medium-range for Central U.S. But Upper-level Ridge Over U.S. Corn Belt in 15 days

Medium-range forecasts trend wetter across the central Great Plains and particularly the U.S. Corn Belt as we try to deter spreading drought caused by the current hot/dry weather pattern. However, a pattern change featuring an upper-level ridge over the Midwest U.S. is seen in 15 days.
07/19/2022, 6:37 am EDT

Upper Ocean Heat East of the Dateline Begins to Cool Again

The subsurface warming has started to reverse. During the past 7-10 days the upper ocean heat east of the Dateline is now cooler than normal (again). The cooler change suggests La Nina will continue.
07/19/2022, 4:55 am EDT

Africa ITCZ Leads to Europe Heatwave

Typical of Europe heatwaves, extreme heat from the African Desert is propelled northward by the subtropical ridge this time inspired by the combination of a strong Africa ITCZ and an offshore Southwest Europe low-pressure area. The southerly flow ahead of the low-pressure area guided an amplified subtropical ridge into Western Europe to deliver historic heat the past few days.