Wetter Medium-range for Central U.S. But Upper-level Ridge Over U.S. Corn Belt in 15 days

Upper Ocean Heat East of the Dateline Begins to Cool Again
07/19/2022, 6:37 am EDT
Midwest States shift into drought in latest NOAA climate outlooks.
07/21/2022, 10:09 am EDT
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Fig. 1-4: Mega-cluster ensemble “most likely” 15-day precipitation forecast across the U.S. and the “most likely” upper air pattern in 15 days.

Discussion: Intense heat is most-focused on the Mid-south U.S. mid-to-late week although the central Great Plains across the Midwest are almost as hot. The 5-day forecast is mostly dry in the Great Plains with a few pop-up thunderstorms most prevalent in the Northern Corn Belt (Fig. 1). A cold front will move south out of Canada early next week and causes a wetter change to the 6-10-day outlook which includes the Central Great Plains and especially the Midwest States (Fig. 2). In the 11-15-day period, the mega-cluster ensemble maintains the wetter trend most-focused on the Mid-south to Mid-Atlantic States (Fig. 3). However, in the “most likely” 15-day upper air forecast, we’re beginning to see signs of an upper ridge pattern settling on the North-central/Midwest U.S. which would create a hotter/drier Northern U.S. pattern most likely for August (Fig. 4).