Midwest States shift into drought in latest NOAA climate outlooks.

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Fig. 1: NOAA/CPC U.S. seasonal drought outlook.  

Discussion: NOAA/CPC issues a new seasonal drought forecast which expands the Great Plains drought into the Midwest States although the Ohio Valley will miss that expansion (Fig. 1). Additionally, the central to southeast New England drought is likely to end. Drought expansion is likely in Louisiana/Mississippi. The wet Southwest Monsoon ends the Arizona drought.

The NOAA/CPC outlook for August indicates searing heat likely to anchor across the Mid-south States to the northwest Gulf Coast (Fig. 2). Hotter than normal risk covers most of the U.S. The Central U.S. heat is accompanied by a dry climate (Fig. 3). The risk of an August tropical cyclone into Texas and Louisiana in August is low. However, the Southeast States from Florida to North Carolina are wet and any early season tropical events making landfall arrive in this location. The Southwest U.S. wet monsoon across Arizona is strong.

Fig. 2-3: NOAA/CPC August 2022 temperature and precipitation probability outlooks.

Fig. 4-5: NOAA/CPC autumn 2022 (SEP/OCT/NOV) temperature and precipitation probability outlooks.

The NOAA/CPC outlook for meteorological autumn indicates warm risk continues to dominate the U.S. (Fig. 4). Additionally, a dry climate strengthens the West to Central U.S. drought (Fig. 5). Interestingly, despite a big year in the tropics, the rainfall probability forecast does not indicate a high risk of wet climate on the Atlantic Seaboard except the coastal Mid-Atlantic.

The meteorological winter 202-23 outlook from NOAA/CPC indicates a warmer than normal season for California, across the South U.S. and throughout the East States (Fig. 6). Washington gains a cold risk and the Upper Midwest has a chance at a colder than normal winter. A stormy winter is forecast for the Ohio Valley (Fig. 7).


Fig. 6-7: NOAA/CPC winter 2022-23 (DEC/JAN/FEB) temperature and precipitation probability outlooks.