August 2021 - Climate Impact Company

08/31/2021, 7:05 am EDT

Tropical Disturbance 90L The Next Potential Important Hurricane

Tropical Disturbance 90L appears to be the strongest tropical wave to move off the West Africa Coast so far this season. Consequently, tropical cyclone models develop 90L with a west to west-northwest 5-day track with intensification to hurricane strength. A category-3 major hurricane is possible in 5 days. This system is a concern for the U.S. East Coast given the potential influence on the steering currents of a west-travelling hurricane in the North Atlantic subtropics.

08/30/2021, 8:31 am EDT

Ida Causes Catastrophic Damage To Southeast Lousiana

In southeastern Louisiana, hurricane force wind was observed to the MS/LA state line and across most of southeast Louisiana including New Orleans to near Baton Rouge.

08/30/2021, 4:58 am EDT

Heavy Rainfall Episode As Ida Turns Through The East U.S. This Week

Although Ida is weakening moving north and later northeastward an immense rain storm will emerge along the path of this storm this week due to lingering tropical characteristics into tomorrow and merging with a frontal system mid-to-late week. Widespread flash flooding will continue!

08/29/2021, 9:20 am EDT

Ida Continues To Intensify Rapidly!

Ida’s lowest pressure tumbled to 930 MB at 8AM EDT. Top wind is now 150 mph. An elevated platform at Southwest Pass, LA measured a wind speed at 105 mph with gusts to 121 mph at 8AM EDT. Ida continues to intensify.

08/27/2021, 7:29 am EDT

Hurricane Models And Ida Prior To Landfall

Warm waters off the coast of Louisiana support the possibility of Ida becoming a category-4 major hurricane.

08/26/2021, 8:39 am EDT

Gulf Of Mexico SST/SSTA Regime Ahead Of A Tropical Cyclone

Glancing at the SST across the Gulf of Mexico reveals normally warm 29C/85F in the southeast Gulf although north of the Yucatan Peninsula is cooler than normal. In the central Gulf SST warms slightly to a near normal 85.5F. However, the west-central/east-central Gulf of Mexico are warmer than normal (86F-86.5F) and somewhat warmer than normal in the northwest Gulf (87F).

08/24/2021, 9:31 am EDT

Unique (Atlantic warmth/La Nina Modoki) SSTA Pattern In The Forecast

The combination of a warmer than normal eastern Indian Ocean (negative Indian Ocean Dipole), La Nina biased toward the Dateline (Modoki) and a warm tropical Atlantic produce rainfall patterns that could benefit the Brazil drought zone.

08/23/2021, 12:21 pm EDT

Nino34 SSTA Zooms Past La Nina Threshold!

Last week the Nino34 SSTA zoomed past the La Nina threshold (-0.5C) to -0.9C. The subsurface has also significantly cooled. If this trend continues, La Nina onset would be announced by early October.

08/22/2021, 8:46 am EDT

Henri Downgraded To A Tropical Storm

Henri weakened to a tropical storm this morning moving across cooler waters north of the Gulf Stream. Henri was a bit of an under-achiever while over warm waters south and east of the Gulf Stream yesterday. Therefore the weather and storm surge into Long Island and New England still produces hazards but less so than indicated yesterday.

08/20/2021, 10:29 am EDT

New Long-lead Forecasts From NOAA Include Wet Louisiana/Mid-Atlantic Projections in September. Possible TC Strikes!

The updated NOAA/CPC long-lead climate forecast for September indicates an increased risk of above normal rain across Louisiana and the Mid-Atlantic region possibly related to tropical cyclone activity.

08/19/2021, 9:38 am EDT

Preliminary Look at U.S. Winter 2021-22 Heating Degree Day Forecast

The cold season 2021-22 HDD forecast indicates each month is in-between the colder 30-year normal and warmer 10-year normal. The front-end of the cold season (October and November) has been adjusted somewhat warmer due to milder forecasts in the East issued yesterday in the latest month 1-3 outlook.

08/18/2021, 8:56 am EDT

Negative Atlantic Meridional Mode Increases Risk of a Wet Spring in Brazil

A wet spring is ahead for Brazil which is much-needed rainfall given the drought condition. One catalyst to the wet climate pattern is the strong negative phase of the Atlantic Meridional Mode.