During the past 2-3 weeks the convective phase of the Madden Julian oscillation (MJO) has dominated the eastern Indian Ocean/West Indonesia tropics. The general rising air induced by convection along this stretch is replaced by increasing easterly trade winds arriving from the central/eastern equatorial Pacific. The trade wind increase in the central/eastern equatorial Pacific has caused up-welling of cool subsurface water to cause La Nina to gain some strength.

Heavy rain and snow events are ahead in the 6-10 and 11-15-day forecast for the Central and East-central U.S. Included is projections of 5+ in. of rain centered on the western Tennessee Valley in the 11-15-day period.