Discussion: In the medium-range, the East Atlantic/Western Russia climate signal is forecast to shift into moderate-to-strong positive phase (Fig. 1). Historically, +EAWR index leads to a cold and snowy pattern in the Black Sea region and Southwest Russia (Fig. 2). Western Europe becomes milder and drier than normal.
Fig. 1-2: Using all models, the East Atlantic Western Russia (EAWR) index is forecast to become very positive favoring colder/snowy weather in the Black Sea region.
Forecast models convey the +EAWR index by projecting colder and wetter (snow) medium-range forecasts for the Black Sea region (Fig. 3-6). The ECM ENS is utilized and indicates very cold temperatures in Turkey to Romania and into Ukraine days 6-10 while significant snow extends northeastward to Southwest Russia and Kazakhstan. In the 11-15-day period, the cold continues although Ukraine trends drier.
Fig. 3-6: ECM ENS percent of normal precipitation forecast for the next 15 days across Europe.