A major tornado outbreak for Mississippi/Alabama today accompanied by excessive rain with flash flood risk extending north to the southwest Tennessee Valley. Another severe weather/flooding event is indicated for early next week in the Mid-south States. Also, early next week an excessive hot weather events in in the forecast for California.

Late calendar winter was dry in East China wheat-growing areas raising concern regarding drought. However, due to presence of the Madden Julian oscillation in the far western Pacific during the past 10 days a wetter regime eased the dryness. New week 2-4 forecasts reveal the dryness returns!

This week, a transition to a sharp negative phase of the Scandinavia Index takes place. During -SCAND, an upper trough becomes dominant across northwest Eurasia. Initially, temperatures turn quite cold across Northern Europe/Northwest Russia featuring some arctic air. In the 6-10-day period the upper trough elongates into Southwest Europe and the attendant chill expands across all of Europe reaching Ukraine and Western Russia.

A transient (warm) Kelvin Wave traversing the equatorial Pacific during late meteorological winter in the northern hemisphere warmed the East Pacific and caused La Nina to weaken. However, the Kelvin Wave is constricting and the East Pacific subsurface beneath the equator is cooling again. expect La Nina to regain strength into April.

The past couple days brought a northward surge of dust from the Sahara Desert to Southwest Europe reaching U.K. Dust storms over Southwest Europe are not unusual this time of year. However, the northern expanse and intensity of this event was exceptional. The northern surge of Sahara Dust was caused by a strong low-level southerly current of air across Northwest Africa in-between a small but potent upper trough on the Northwest Coast of Africa and an amplified upper ridge pattern over Northern Europe. The pattern is characteristic of the positive phase of the Scandinavia Index (+SCAND) regime.

Evidence to support a dry (and hot) mid-summer climate forecast for North America in the Great Plains is increasing. The most recent NCEP CFS V2 and ECMWF “monthlies” outlook for July 2022 each indicate widespread anomalous dry climate for the entire Great Plains with disagreement for the Canadian Prairies.