News
03/31/2022, 12:17 pm EDT

Timing Mid-Atlantic Severe Weather Today

A new squall line is forecast to develop mid-afternoon today in central Pennsylvania to northeast West Virginia and shift eastward and intensify bringing flash flood rainfall and a possible tornado to Maryland and south/east Pennsylvania.
03/31/2022, 4:27 am EDT

Russia Season 1-3 Ahead Outlook: Drought Concern for Summer 2022

Highlight: Drought risk for summer 2022 increasing. Executive Summary: The Climate Impact Company season 1-3 ahead forecast for Western Russia valid through autumn 2022 is updated. The forecast is based on a constructed analog using regional SSTA patterns forecast by the IMME model to project the prevailing climate pattern. The concern is primarily with the summer season. At that time extremely warm SSTA off the East Coast of Asia and in the Norwegian Sea are well-correlated to upper-level high-pressure ridge patterns which will emerge across much of Russia. The result is widespread anomalous warmth and dryness promoting the likelihood of expanding drought risk in West/Southwest Russia to Siberia. Climate discussion: Entering quarter 2 of 2022 the prevailing soil moisture regime across Russia indicates a mixed pattern. The spring wheat growing areas in West-central Russia are mostly in drought while the Black Sea region mostly enjoys wet soil conditions (Fig. 1). Ukraine has mostly borderline dry conditions. Western Russia is mostly a mix of borderline wet and dry conditions. The prevailing upper air pattern during JAN/FEB/MAR 2022 produced two semi-persistent high-pressure areas across Eurasia with one center over Western Europe and a second across Siberia. Susceptibility to an upper trough lay over the Black Sea region (Fig. 2). The prevailing upper air pattern projected for Q2 and Q3 of 2022 is driven primarily by the vast warming projected by the IMME model off the East Coast of Asia (Fig. 3) and that same feature plus warming of the Norwegian Sea during Q3 of 2022 (Fig. 4). The strong upper ridge patterns are well-correlated to these warm SSTA zones. During Q2 of 2022 the Siberia high-pressure system northwest of the warm SSTA off East China may intensify with a compensating upper trough upstream in West-central Russia (Fig. 5). However, the warm SSTA northwest and east of Eurasia by August lead to a sprawling high-pressure ridge across northwest to northeast Eurasia (Fig. 6). The high-pressure ridge areas produce anomalous warmth and dryness and increased drought risk. Other climate factors based on the SSTA forecast also influence the Russia 2022 climate outlook including a fading La Nina, evolving negative phase Indian ocean Dipole and a warming North Atlantic (except staying relatively cool south and southeast of Greenland). The Climate Impact Company constructed analog forecast identifies each regional SSTA pattern described and correlates recent similar signatures to project the most likely climate pattern ahead for 2022 across Russia. Fig. 1-2: The daily soil moisture anomaly analysis for Europe to Central Russia and the prevailing upper air pattern for Q1 of 2022. Fig. 3-4: The IMME global SSTA forecast for May and August 2022 and the warm SSTA zones with dominant influence on the Eurasia upper air pattern. Fig. 5-6: Based on the Climate Impact Company constructed analog forecast, the prevailing upper air features for both Q2 and Q3 of 2022. April 2022: The first half of April is wet and cool due to an upper-level trough mostly over Europe. The sensible forecast is different from the drier/warmer constructed analog. The CA forecast indicates the cool pattern becomes confined to West-central Russia while the Black Sea region is drier and warmer than normal. The CA Forecast is the likely conditions to emerge during the second half of April. Therefore, the actual April outlook is wetter than indicated for Western Russia. Fig. 7-8: Climate Impact Company constructed analog temperature and precipitation anomaly forecast across Russia for April 2022. May 2022: Late spring brings a temporary breakdown of the Siberian high-pressure system. As a result, a cool pattern develops beneath an upper trough. The upper trough cuts off any subtropical moisture from reaching the area from the south or from the open waters (from ice) north of the continent to cause widespread dryness. A warm and dry pattern shifts westward centered on the Caspian Sea region. Wet weather in Europe extends to the Black Sea region. Fig. 9-10: Climate Impact Company constructed analog temperature and precipitation anomaly forecast across Russia for May 2022. June 2022: In June the old pattern returns…a Siberian high-pressure area and weak upper-level ridge in Southwest Russia. As a result, a general very dry climate pattern across much of west and central portions of Russia. Wet weather in Europe extends to Ukraine otherwise the eastern Black Sea region is likely dry. Soil moisture stays dry in the spring wheat region with mixed conditions elsewhere. Fig. 11-12: Climate Impact Company constructed analog temperature and precipitation anomaly forecast across Russia for June 2022. JUN/JUL/AUG 2022: Due to evolving dominant high-pressure ridging, anomalous warmth and dryness are likely to dominate Russia during meteorological summer. Drought risk will expand in West-central Russia farther west (and east) likely reaching Southwest Russia and certainly Siberia. The constructed analog indicates hottest summertime risk is projected just-north of the Black Sea region. A wetter than normal climate is forecast for Europe and is compensated for downstream over Russia. Fig. 13-14: Climate Impact Company constructed analog temperature and precipitation anomaly forecast across Russia for JUN/JUL/AUG 2022. SEP/OCT/NOV 2022: The outlook for meteorological autumn remains warm and dry across Western Russia while a chilly zone evolves east of Caspian Sea. Fig. 15-16: Climate Impact Company constructed analog temperature and precipitation anomaly forecast across Russia for SEP/OCT/NOV 2022.  
03/30/2022, 3:19 pm EDT

Europe Season 1-3 Ahead Climate Outlook: Avoiding Summer Drought Due to a Showery Climate

Highlight: Trending wetter in Europe for the warm season; West/southwest Russia is where the drought concern is located. Executive Summary: The Climate Impact Company season 1-3 ahead forecast for Europe valid for meteorological mid-spring through autumn 2022 is updated. To add granularity, the months of April, May and June (forecasts) are indicated. The forecast is based on a constructed analog. Highlights include evolution of a wet summer climate across much of Europe easing any drought concerns. The warm season is warmer/hotter than normal for most of Europe. Western Russia is where a dry climate and attendant anomalous heat and drought concerns develop for the summer season. Q1 2022 climate: The Q1/2022 European climate pattern was characterized by positive phase North Atlantic oscillation (+NAO) correlated to persistent anomalous high-pressure over Western Europe (Fig. 1). As a result, an exceptionally mild winter was observed across central and northern Europe. Farther downstream, a compensating upper-level trough produced a cold Q1/2022 across Turkey. The upper ridge over Western Europe is compensation for the strongest northern hemisphere upper air feature during Q1/2022, an upper trough over East Canada to Greenland (Fig. 2). The upper trough over East Canada to Greenland was made intense, in-part due to an attendant position in-between two semi-permanent upper-level high-pressure ridge areas over the northeastern Pacific Ocean and northwestern Atlantic Ocean. These semi-permanent upper-level ridge areas are present due to the persistent “warm blob” SSTA in both the north/northeast Pacific and western North Atlantic basins (Fig. 3). Mid-latitude SSTA patterns are significant contributors to the prevailing climate. Fig. 1-3: The prevailing upper air for Q1/2022 over Europe and the northern hemisphere is in-part related to the mid-latitude “warm blobs” SSTA pattern. The mid-summer global SSTA forecast/influence on Europe: Utilizing the International Multi-model Ensemble (IMME), the projected SSTA pattern for July 2022 (Fig. 4) features expansion of the northern hemisphere mid-latitude “warm blobs”. These massive areas of anomalous warm SSTA are linked to expansion and intensification of semi-permanent (dry/hot) high-pressure areas. Note that warming SSTA also evolves surrounding Europe including the Mediterranean Sea. In opposition to the North Atlantic warming is the semi-permanent area of relative cool SSTA to the south and southeast of Greenland known as the North Atlantic warm hole (NAWH) present due to the rapid ice melt across Greenland and associated runoff during late spring/early summer. This feature is semi-permanent during the past 10 years and has greatly influenced the prevailing warm season upper air pattern across Europe (Fig. 5). Elsewhere, the La Nina episode weakens while SSTA in the Indonesia region remain very warm which causes anomalous convection making the Southeast Asia Monsoon stronger with residual effects on the mid-latitude atmosphere to the north which effects the summer climate of Eurasia. The Europe (and Eurasia) prevailing upper air pattern forecast for summer 2022 is based on the IMME SSTA projection for July 2022 which (specifically) identifies expansion of warm mid-latitude SSTA, return of the NAWH, a weakened La Nina and emergence of neutral ENSO and the warm SSTA of Indonesia stretching into the East Indian Ocean characteristic of developing negative phase Indian Ocean Dipole. Based on the 10-year climatology and adjusted for ENSO/IOD the anticipated prevailing upper air pattern across Europe features the feared upper-level drought-producing high-pressure ridge area anchored over Southwest Russia (Fig. 6). At times, the ridge extends across Central Europe. Based on the constructed analog, west/Southwest Russia and the Black Sea region can expect a dry and hot summer while most of Europe is warmer than normal but with wet risk. Fig. 4: The IMME global SSTA forecast for July 2022 and prominent features relative to the Eurasia warm season climate. Fig. 5: Since 2013, the NAWH pattern in the North Atlantic has been dominant during the warm season and its presence has influenced the prevailing summertime upper air pattern.   Fig. 6: The Climate Impact Company constructed analog prevailing upper air pattern across Europe for summer 2022. Soil moisture projection: Currently, soil moisture conditions across Europe are trending drier for France to Italy to Central Europe and also parts of Ukraine plus Portugal (Fig. 7). The Climate Impact Company constructed analog (CIC-CA) utilizing the regional SSTA patterns discussed project soil moisture conditions for March 2022 which are reasonably similar to current conditions (Fig. 8). However, the July 2022 soil moisture forecast shifts dryness (and drought) to West/Southwest Russia (Fig. 9) beneath the upper-level high-pressure ridge identified in Fig. 6. Soil moisture conditions in Europe are forecast to improve due to the showery nature of the warm season climate.        Fig. 7-9: Current soil moisture anomalies across Europe, the constructed analog forecast of current conditions and the July 2022 outlook. Forecast methodology: The Europe season 1-3 climate outlook is based on a constructed analog. The forecast is presented on a monthly basis for April through June and converted to seasonal outlooks for meteorological summer (JUN/JUL/AUG) and autumn (SEP/OCT/NOV). April 2022: A cold start to April across much of Europe. However, an upper-level high-pressure ridge builds-in across Southern Europe mid-to-late month and delivers a warmer-than-normal 30-day average. The constructed analog is not as wet as indicated by operational models through the first half of the month. While the second half of April is likely drier as the storm track lifts northward, the constructed analog is not sufficiently wet for the month of April for the southern half of Europe. Ukraine and most of the Black Sea region average warmer and drier than normal in April. Northwest Africa receives above normal rainfall and is also warmer than normal. Fig. 10-11: Climate Impact Company constructed analog temperature and precipitation anomaly forecast across Europe for April 2022. May 2022: During late meteorological spring Southern Europe is wet as the projected upper air pattern leaves a susceptibility of an upper-level low-pressure trough. The wet regime defeats the emerging dry soils in-place for Southern Europe departing calendar winter. The wet weather suppresses warm risk across Southern Europe. However, farther to the north anomalous warmth dominates Northern Europe and into Western Russia. The Black Sea region is marginally wet and warmer than normal although likely drier than normal in Russia’s Southern District. Northwest Africa observes near normal rainfall and is warmer than normal. Fig. 12-13: Climate Impact Company constructed analog temperature and precipitation anomaly forecast across Europe for May 2022. June 2022: Early meteorological summer stays wetter than normal across Southern Europe. Dryness is profound and widespread in West Russia to the eastern Black Sea region. Anomalous warmth covers all of Europe except for Portugal and Spain. Excessive warmth is possible in parts of the Black Sea region to northern Germany. In Northwest Africa, the outlook is temperate with near normal rainfall. Fig. 14-15: Climate Impact Company constructed analog temperature and precipitation anomaly forecast across Europe for June 2022. JUN/JUL/AUG 2022: Meteorological summer is warmer than normal across all of Europe, Western Russia and the Black Sea region. Excessive warmth is likely across the northern Black Sea region. Dryness and attendant heat imply drought concerns for Southwest Russia to Ukraine and the eastern Black Sea region. The tendency for an upper trough to produce wet weather over Europe is certainly evident for early summer but that (wet) support may ease off for late summer. Northwest Africa is hotter than normal. Fig. 16-17: Climate Impact Company constructed analog temperature and precipitation anomaly forecast across Europe for JUN/JUL/AUG 2022. SEP/OCT/NOV 2022: Next autumn is warmer than normal for most of Europe into Western Russia. The persistent wet risk across Southern Europe is likely to continue. Western Russia to eastern Ukraine stays drier than normal. Fig. 18-19: Climate Impact Company constructed analog temperature and precipitation anomaly forecast across Europe for SEP/OCT/NOV 2022.  
03/30/2022, 2:44 pm EDT

Projecting Maximum Intensity of Today’s Southeast U.S. Squall Line

The ongoing severe weather event in the southern states continues to track eastward. According to the HRRR model, peak lightning intensity is around 9PM CDT near Baton Rouge, LA and northeastward to the east of Jackson, MS. The maximum intensity of the squall line is at 11PM CDT stretching from just east of New Orleans northeastward to Birmingham. A lot of severe weather at night – an extremely dangerous combination.