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Fig. 1-2: NOAA/SPC tornado risk area forecast for today and the excessive rainfall/flash flood risk area forecast by NOAA/WPC.

Fig. 3: HRRR model identifies an intense squall line featuring tornadoes and occurring in darkness this evening.

Discussion: A major tornado outbreak is forecast for today/tonight in the central Gulf region (Fig. 1). Excessive rainfall causing flash flooding is centered on the southwest Tennessee valley to Alabama (Fig. 2). The attendant squall line brings tornado risk after dark in Alabama (Fig. 3). The severe weather shifts into the East on Thursday (Fig. 4). The next heavy rain/severe weather risk is projected for MON/TUE of next week across the Mid-south and into the Southeast U.S. (Fig. 5).


Fig. 4-5: NOAA/SPC projects severe storms into the East on Thursday and the next heavy rain/severe weather event is forecast for next MON/TUE in the Mid-south States according to NOAA/WPC.

High-pressure amplifies in the West during the medium-range and California is likely to observe their first excessive hot weather event of the season by late in the 6-10-ay period (Fig. 6).

Fig. 6: ECMWF maximum temperature forecast for Thursday April 7th.