02/28/2023, 8:42 am EST

MJO-Driven Wet Weather Ahead for Argentina by mid-March

An active and intensifying transient equatorial Pacific MJO episode is likely to cause an expanding wet weather regime in South America by mid-March that includes parts of the Argentina summer 2022-23 drought area. Wet weather in Brazil may also expand.
02/28/2023, 8:32 am EST

(Needed) Wet Weather Pattern Change Ahead for India

During the past few months dry soil conditions have developed in Northeast India with a westward advance toward the wheat, soybean, and corn growing areas. The latest week 2-4 forecast indicates benefical rains to ease drought concern in the mid-March forecast.
02/28/2023, 8:25 am EST

Onset of Climate Pattern Change Ahead Including La Nina Demise and ENSO Shift Toward El Nino

Fig: 1-2: The short-term 500 MB anomalies across the northern hemisphere and their pattern change in the middle latitudes in the 11-15-day period. Discussion: The northern hemisphere upper air pattern has generally been highly amplified through the northern hemisphere cold season featuring a persistent stormy upper trough over the U.S. West Coast and Northeast Asia, super ridge over the marine heat wave (NEP22A) north-northeast of Hawaii, and equally impressive warm climate producing upper ridge areas over eastern North America and Europe. Heading into early March, the northern hemisphere upper air pattern remains quite amplified (Fig. 1). However, a large pattern change is ahead! In the 11-15-day period, ECM ENS indicates a reversal in mid-latitude upper air character (Fig. 2) to zonal (stronger west-to-east flow, less amplified). One sensible attendant weather pattern change is a broad colder shift in the U.S. The cause of this pattern change is an eastward shift of the Madden Julian oscillation (MJO) across the equatorial Pacific (Fig. 3) with intensity (for March) not seen since 2015. Following that event, El Nino developed. A rapid demise in La Nina 2020-23 will occur with this MJO transition over the next 2 weeks! The eastward shift of a strengthening MJO across the equatorial Pacific strengthens the positive phase of global atmospheric angular momentum (GLAAM) which erodes the amplified upper pattern of winter 2022-23 in middle latitudes (Fig. 4). The Australia Bureau of Meteorology adjusts their ENSO forecast to strong El Nino by JUL/AUG and El Nino onset as early as APR/MAY (Fig. 5). Fig: 3-4: The strongest March MJO event since 2015 is ahead and will contribute to the strengthening of a positive phase global atmospheric angular momentum. Fig: 5: Australia Bureau of Meteorology ENSO forecast using Nino34 SSTA.  
02/28/2023, 8:23 am EST

Onset of Climate Pattern Change Ahead Including La Nina Demise and ENSO Shift Toward El Nino

A powerful Madden Julian oscillation is in the 15-day forecast by all models. The MJO shifts across the equatorial Pacific to ignite a weather pattern change across the northern hemisphere plus erode what remains of La Nina and point ENSO in the direction of El Nino for mid-year.