February 2023 - Climate Impact Company

News

02/28/2023, 8:42 am EST

MJO-Driven Wet Weather Ahead for Argentina by mid-March

An active and intensifying transient equatorial Pacific MJO episode is likely to cause an expanding wet weather regime in South America by mid-March that includes parts of the Argentina summer 2022-23 drought area. Wet weather in Brazil may also expand.

02/28/2023, 8:32 am EST

(Needed) Wet Weather Pattern Change Ahead for India

During the past few months dry soil conditions have developed in Northeast India with a westward advance toward the wheat, soybean, and corn growing areas. The latest week 2-4 forecast indicates benefical rains to ease drought concern in the mid-March forecast.

02/28/2023, 8:23 am EST

Onset of Climate Pattern Change Ahead Including La Nina Demise and ENSO Shift Toward El Nino

A powerful Madden Julian oscillation is in the 15-day forecast by all models. The MJO shifts across the equatorial Pacific to ignite a weather pattern change across the northern hemisphere plus erode what remains of La Nina and point ENSO in the direction of El Nino for mid-year.

02/27/2023, 8:37 pm EST

Oceanic La Nina Fades to Neutral Phase

Last week, Nino34 SSTA warmed to -0.3C which is neutral ENSO. Only the Nino4 region is at the La Nina threshold. The Nino3 SSTA warmed too exactly normal. The weekly observations maintain the trend of a slow decay of La Nina dating back to late last year.