02/28/2023, 8:42 am EST

MJO-Driven Wet Weather Ahead for Argentina by mid-March

An active and intensifying transient equatorial Pacific MJO episode is likely to cause an expanding wet weather regime in South America by mid-March that includes parts of the Argentina summer 2022-23 drought area. Wet weather in Brazil may also expand.
02/28/2023, 8:32 am EST

(Needed) Wet Weather Pattern Change Ahead for India

During the past few months dry soil conditions have developed in Northeast India with a westward advance toward the wheat, soybean, and corn growing areas. The latest week 2-4 forecast indicates benefical rains to ease drought concern in the mid-March forecast.
02/27/2023, 8:37 pm EST

Oceanic La Nina Fades to Neutral Phase

Last week, Nino34 SSTA warmed to -0.3C which is neutral ENSO. Only the Nino4 region is at the La Nina threshold. The Nino3 SSTA warmed too exactly normal. The weekly observations maintain the trend of a slow decay of La Nina dating back to late last year.
02/26/2023, 12:07 pm EST

Global Atmospheric Angular Momentum Shift to Positive Phase

Helping to support an eastward expansion of the Western U.S. cold is a shift to positive phase of the global atmospheric angular momentum. During +GLAAM regimes, the mid-latitude jet stream strengthens and the hemispheric pattern becomes less amplified.
02/23/2023, 5:09 pm EST

MJO Shift Drives Colder U.S. Pattern in March

ECMWF 30-day MJO forecast indicates and intense signature shifting through the eastern equatorial Pacific and into the tropical Atlantic during March. Normally, during early meteorological spring, MJO shifting into this region with intensity produces a cold U.S. upper trough pattern as indicated by ECMWF "Weeklies".
02/22/2023, 4:33 pm EST

Marine Heat Wave is Catalyst to Historic Flooding and Heat During Summer 2022-23 in New Zealand

The most recent example of devastating climate regimes and embedded weather events is across New Zealand as summer 2022-23 has produced historic warmth across South Islands while Northern New Zealand has endured the worst flooding episode on record. The catalyst to the heat and flooding rainfall is the persistence of anomalous warm waters which reached record levels in early 2023 surrounding New Zealand.
02/22/2023, 8:31 am EST

Massive Northern U.S. Storm Today

A massive Northern U.S. storm stretches from the Northwest Coast to New York State by early this afternoon. Featured is heavy snow with high wind leading to blizzard conditions at times across the Dakotas to Minnesota and the northern Great Lakes where 1-2 feet of snow is possible and snow drifts cause greater than several foot pileups. Just south of the heavy snow, a band of freezing rain accreting to >0.5 in. is expected.
02/22/2023, 8:14 am EST

Super Warm SSTA Forecasts for Middle of 2023

Most global SSTA forecasts reveal El Nino for the northern hemisphere summer of 2023 plus widespread marine heat waves in the mid-latitude oceans. If so, 2023 is likely the warmest year on record, a common occurrence during the past 10-15 years.
02/17/2023, 8:51 am EST

Northern U.S. Snow and Ice Storms Next Week

Arctic air edges into the Northern U.S. next week causing a long duration blizzard dumping >2 feet of snow centered on Minensota while a streak of substantial freezing rain and attendant ice accretion extends from central Wisconsin to northern New England.
02/15/2023, 2:08 pm EST

After A Cool Summer an Australian Heatwave Develops

Anomalous heat is generating across Australia thanks to a titanic semi-permanent high-pressure area centered on Western Australia through the next 1-2 weeks. The hottest day of many ahead appears to be February 20th when widespread 100-115F (38-46C) is observed.