The convection phase of Madden Julian oscillation (MJO) to the north of Australia is forecast to shift eastward the next 1-2 weeks inducing a west to southwest wind across much of the continent and cause extreme heat risk beginning across Western Australia in the near-term and expanding across the southern tier of Australia in the 8-14-day period.

The latest monthly multivariate ENSO index is -1.1 which indicates a moderate-strength La Nina remains in-place. However, as La Nina enters a 4th year, the MEI observations are following the analog of 3 previous lengthy La Nina episodes and slowly weakening on the way toward El Nino by mid-year.