Signs of El Nino are developing!

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The warming of SSTA off the West Coast of South America the past 4-6 weeks has suddenly and vividly extended to the Nino12 SSTA region. The Nino12 SSTA is now +1.14C (Fig. 1) which is nearly 2C warmer than 30 days ago (Fig. 2). Some forecast models are predicting El Nino coming on as early as April or May and current observational trend certainly confirms that opinion! ECMWF indicates a full-blown El Nino by June (Fig. 3).

Fig. 1-2: The Nino12 daily SSTA analysis and 30-day change.

Fig. 3: ECMWF global SSTA forecast for June 2023.