Based on the Climate Impact Company constructed analog forecasts for winter 2023-24 a look at the prevailing upper air pattern for December, January, and February is provided with annotations as to where (based on the upper pattern) significant snow is likely to occur.

In 15 days, the mega-cluster ensemble “most likely” upper air forecast indicates a cold trough lingering over Europe. ECM, GFS, and CFS V2 each indicate a robust warm pattern change. However, extensive snow cover advises caution, and the CMC projection of lingering cold is indicated.

Oceanic El Nino is approaching peak. However, atmospheric El Nino is considerably weaker. Consequently, non-El Nino-like weather regimes are occurring. Examples are incoming heavy rains for India and Southeast Asia, unexpected heavy rains for Eastern Australia, and evolving bitter cold across Europe and Northwest Russia.

Deep layer soil moisture anomalies are trending drier in Central/Southwest Brazil as drought potential in this region increases. The already established deep layer soil moisture dryness in North Brazil persists. The soil moisture dry trend is propelled by anomalous heat so far in November across Brazil. A drier than normal rainfall pattern continues over Northern Brazil and has increased near and east of Bolivia eastward to the Brazil East Coast.

After a vigorous windstorm on Thursday a colder regime settles over Europe and eventually most associated precipitation is snow. Eastern Europe to Interior Southeast Europe has snow on the ground by late month helping to enhance the chilly pattern. The week 2-4 forecast projects milder North Atlantic maritime flow in the extended range to scour away the chill.