November 2023 - Page 3 of 3 - Climate Impact Company

11/09/2023, 2:04 pm EST

A Warm October and Very Warm AUG/SEP/OCT 2023!

Another very warm month was observed in October 2023 ranking 18th warmest in the 129-year climatology. The warmest states were New England and the northern Mid-Atlantic region plus Arizona/New Mexico each in the MUCH ABOVE normal category. Only 9 of the 48 contiguous states averaged near normal with warmer than normal elsewhere.

11/09/2023, 5:09 am EST

Next 10 (Hot and Dry) Days Important Determining Central Brazil Summer Drought Risk

The region of primary drought concern for summer 2023-24 is across Northern Brazil. Deep layer (10-200 CM) soil moisture anomalies identify this risk area. Recently, the deep layer soil moisture deficit region has expanded southward into Central Brazil warranting drought concern for Brazil’s northern crop areas. During the past 7-10 days, the deep layer soil moisture deficit has eased slightly.

11/08/2023, 8:06 am EST

Market News: Redeveloping Low Water Hazard on the Mississippi; Scorching Hot Brazil Ahead

River gauges along the central/south-central Mississippi River indicated a recent recovery to “low water” level. However, lack of rain in the 10-day-forecast causes water levels to lower again. At Tunica Mhoon Landing, water levels dip to 8 feet below “low water” by Nov. 21. The lowest level below “low water” was 10 feet one month ago.

11/06/2023, 10:08 am EST

El Nino Support (Upper Ocean Heat) Remains Steady

The upper ocean heat across the equatorial Pacific Ocean remains steadily very warm and supportive of maintaining the current robust oceanic El Nino episode.

11/06/2023, 5:52 am EST

Strong Negative East Atlantic/Western Russia Pattern Soaks Europe

The East Atlantic/Western Russia (EAWR) index is present when a strong trough is located across Europe and north of China while amplified high pressure zones occupy the central North Atlantic and Caspian Sea region. In this pattern, which developed over 1 week ago and is forecast to remain through the next 2 weeks, heavy precipitation stretches across Europe.

11/06/2023, 3:31 am EST

A Mild Winter EXCEPT for NEW Cold Risk in January for Europe

The Climate Impact Company month 1-4 ahead outlook for the winter 2023-24 season is adjusted less warm due to a potential cold January. The forecast features above normal precipitation for Western Europe and West/Northwest Russia where above normal snowfall is likely.

11/03/2023, 5:45 am EDT

Amundsen Sea Low Pressure Trough Ejects Low Pressure Systems; Brings Heavy Rain to Southeast Brazil

The semi-permanent Amundsen Sea low pressure area emits low-pressure systems northeastward in the current weather pattern. The low-pressure systems are unusually strong featuring 970-980 MB low pressure. Attendant cold fronts extend to Southeast Brazil from these storm systems triggering heavy rains for that region in November.

11/02/2023, 5:55 am EDT

Drought Developing in Australia Although Patchy Rains In 15-Day Outlook

The October 2023 rainfall pattern across Southeast Asia, Indonesia, and Australia featured extremes. The expected weather was dry climate due to El Nino. However, inclusion of an intensifying positive phase of the Indian Ocean dipole (+IOD) lead to mixed observations.

11/01/2023, 5:37 pm EDT

Central/East-central Brazil Strengthening Drought Watch Initiated

Climate Impact Company summer 2023-24 precipitation forecasts for South America identify Central Brazil as an area likely to observe worsening drought. Currently, NOAA daily soil moisture anomaly analysis reveals widespread drought areas lingering in South America most focused on Chile, Argentina, and northern continent. Dryness also exists across many parts of Brazil. Of concern is deep layer (10-200 CM) soil moisture deficits caused by long-term dry climate shifting southward into Central Brazil. The combination of shallow and deep layer dry soils can lead to fast-evolving drought.

11/01/2023, 4:50 pm EDT

Where Did The Northern Hemisphere Upper Air Pattern Originate?

What were the climate drivers in October just-ahead of today’s onset of the cold season? We begin off the Northwest Coast of Africa and southwest of Europe where a strong marine heatwave evolved during 2023 (No. 1).