November 2023 - Page 5 of 9 - Climate Impact Company

News

11/16/2023, 10:44 am EST

Comparing NOAA and Climate Impact Company U.S. Winter 2023-24 Outlook

A review of the just-issued NOAA/CPC long-lead probabilistic climate forecast for DEC-23 and DEC/JAN/FEB 2023-24 with the anomaly projections from Climate Impact Company plus initial insight into the summer 2024 forecast. NOAA and CIC are similarly warm in the East for winter 2023-24 while CIC is colder West. Both forecasts agree on a vigorous (mostly) Southern U.S. storm track.

11/15/2023, 12:34 pm EST

Impressive Cold Pattern Change in U.S. Based on 12Z GFS

The GFS continues to trend colder in the medium range forecast for the U.S. valid the last third of November. The colder support from climate signals is becoming evident for central North America via negative phase of the West and East Pacific oscillations.

11/15/2023, 12:30 pm EST

Unexpected Wet Regime Develops Across Australia

Last week widespread wet weather was observed across Australia. The wet weather is a surprise given the dry climate usually produced by El Nino and certainly evident in October. Latest week 2-4 forecast for Australia maintains the wetter than normal regime into December.

11/15/2023, 8:38 am EST

Why El Nino 2023 Climate is Weaker than Historical Average

The rainfall pattern in the tropics across the Pacific Ocean with all El Nino’s since 2000 during AUG/SEP/OCT has produced typical heavy thunderstorm activity and attendant rainfall across the central and east-central Pacific. To compensate, the far western tropical Pacific/Indonesia observes atmospheric subsidence and a dry climate. The vertical air motion difference between the sinking air over Indonesia and rising air near and east of the Dateline drives the El Nino climate. In 2023, the pattern described is not present.