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Charts of the day: Current soil moisture anomalies and past 7 days rainfall.

Discussion: Soil moisture trend clearly identifies drought concern in Eastern Australia plus the southwest and south coastal areas. Central Australia observed a wetter trend into mid-November. Last week, moderate to heavy rains were observed primarily in northern and eastern sections.

Week-2 Ahead Forecast valid November 21-27, 2023: Heavy rains East.

Discussion: The outlook is similar as heavy rain remains indicated on the East Coast. An upper trough drops into East-central Australia downstream from a semi-permanent upper ridge southwest of the continent.

Week-3 Ahead Forecast valid November 28-December 4, 2023: Wet weather forecast is widespread.

Discussion: The upper trough causing rain across eastern continent lingers and may intensify.

Week-4 Ahead Forecast valid December 5-11, 2023: Rainfall lingers East/Southeast.


Discussion: Wet weather lingers across Eastern Australia, a very unlike El Nino climate pattern continues into early meteorological summer.