Highlight: Latest on soon to be Tropical Storm Ophelia. Fig. 1: NOAA/NHC forecast track for Potential Tropical Cyclone 16 (Ophelia). Discussion: At 5AM EDT, Potential Tropical Cyclone 16 was located at 30.5N/75.0W or about 330 miles east-southeast of Charleston, SC with maximum sustained wind 50 mph, movement north at 14 mph, and lowest pressure 1000 MB (Fig. 1). Technically, this system is a subtropical storm (Ophelia). An upper trough on the northwest side of the storm is preventing a transition into a pure tropical cyclone. NOAA/NHC is forecasting 16 to gain a name as a tropical storm later today as this system moves over 86F/30C surface water associated with the Gulf Stream. Ophelia is forecast by HMON/HWRF to intensify to a 988-990 MB tropical storm before making landfall in eastern North Carolina tomorrow morning. The surface pressure projection indicates a (fairly) vigorous tropical storm. Consequently, Ophelia does not weaken to a depression until reaching the Northern Chesapeake Bay on Sunday. Normally, systems re-intensify moving back over the ocean. However, waters off the northern Mid-Atlantic Coast are cooler than normal and regeneration of this system is not expected. NOAA/WPC projects a heavy rain veil extending across the eastern Carolinas plus central and eastern Virginia to Maryland and Delaware (Fig. 2). All these areas can expect heavy rain with high flash flood potential for eastern portions of each state (Fig. 3). Storm surge is an issue near and to the right of the northward travelling Ophelia implicating eastern North Carolina and up to the entrance of Chesapeake Bay (Fig. 4). Tropical storm wind is likely in east/southeast North Carolina to southeast Virginia with tropical storm force gusts extending well inland likely reaching Richmond, Washington/Baltimore, and Philadelphia (Fig. 5). Elsewhere, the next potential major hurricane organizes into a tropical depression later today in the eastern North Atlantic tropics (Fig. 6). Fig. 2-3: NOAA/NHC rainfall forecast associated with Ophelia and the attendant flash flood risk zones. Fig. 4-5: NOAA/NHC storm surge forecast and tropical storm wind speed profile. Fig. 6: North Atlantic basin satellite view of two tropical systems.