09/29/2023, 1:36 pm EDT

Midday 12Z GFS Trend is Much Wetter Eastern Half of U.S.

The 12Z GFS 15-day forecast is much wetter across most of the eastern half of the U.S. If so, much needed rainfall occurs in the Mississippi River Valley where river levels have been very low in recent weeks.
09/29/2023, 5:09 am EDT

Low Water on The Mississippi River Worsening

400 river level gauges are below “low water” on the Mississippi River due to the 2023 drought in parts of the Central U.S. The condition which is threatening the water supply for October harvest and barge travel along the Mississippi is worsening. The latest 15-day outlook by ECM ENS indicates mostly dry weather continuing in the Mississippi Valley.
09/28/2023, 12:24 pm EDT

North Atlantic Basin Week 2-5 Outlook: Screeching Halt to Larger Storms; Western Basin Development

Typical of tropical cyclone season in the North Atlantic basin, late season activity is most favorable in the western basin. Outer North Atlantic activity has a tendency to diminish although anomalous warm SST is likely to sustain tropical convection in the eastern tropics well into November. ECM indicates Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico risk areas through October (and early November).
09/28/2023, 5:35 am EDT

Pattern Change in The East U.S. Days 11-15?

“If only it were December” was probably a common expression amongst meteorologists, energy traders, and analysts yesterday as the 1200 GMT GFS produced a classic high latitude high pressure blocking pattern to cause a chilly longwave trough to appear in the East U.S. in the 11-15-day period.