Tropical Disturbance 97L formed earlier today and is forecast by tropical cyclone models to become a tropical storm by WED/THU in the central tropical North Atlantic. This system is likely to follow a similar path as Lee and intensify into a hurricane in the 6-10-day period. In the 11-15-day period, there is risk to the East Coast of a hurricane although risk is low for the Gulf of Mexico.

Lee is a still intensifying category-5 major hurricane. The west-northwest movement at 14 mph is expected to slow down over the weekend as the "Bermuda High" to the north providing steering currents for Lee weakens. As Lee slows down, the major hurricane expands. Forecast models continue to indicate a northward turn prior to crossing 70W longitude which lowers U.S. East Coast implications. Note that the waters are cooler than normal east of the Gulf Stream which may cause Lee to weaken while turning northward.

In the Climate Impact Company early report, identified is another excessive rainfall/flood risk episode through the weekend for the Northeast U.S. Corridor away from the coast. A stalled cold front triggers frequent gully-washer thundershowers leading to flooding in many locations already receiving record rainfall during summer 2023.

The HMON hurricane forecast model projects a 917 MB category-5 major hurricane well north of Puerto Rico Sunday evening. After day-5 (Sunday) where Lee will travel is very uncertain and obviously a major U.S. East Coast concern considering the west-northwest movement at category-5 intensity late Sunday.

August 2023 was very dry across the southwest and southeast/east continent with only parts of interior Western Australia wetter than normal. The dry bias to Australia climate caused by El Nino and positive phase Indian Ocean dipole (+IOD) has emerged.