09/25/2023, 2:36 pm EDT

Inconsistent Asia Monsoon for Summer 2023

The 60-day rainfall pattern (since July 24th) has featured mostly drier than normal climate across much of India while areas of wet weather affected China in between excessive hot/dry spells. The prevailing upper air pattern featured low-pressure wet weather zones from the Philippines toward Japan and east of Caspian Sea with general high-pressure in-between, delivering a mostly dry and hot climate to India with patchy rains for China while Northern China was quite hot.
09/24/2023, 1:53 pm EDT

VERY Dynamic Pattern Across South America Drying Brazil

During September 2023 the jet stream axis across Argentina has averaged 25-45 mph stronger than normal. The 15-day forecast maintains the rapid jet stream forecasting 100-160 knots across Argentina. Meanwhile, just the opposite pattern counters that fast upper flow with titanic high pressure featuring much lighter than normal wind across Brazil.
09/22/2023, 4:03 pm EDT

Australia Season 1-3 Ahead Outlook: +IOD/El Nino/MHW’s strongly favor an emerging Australian drought ahead!

Executive Summary: The Australia season 1-3 ahead forecast is updated valid for meteorological autumn 2023 through meteorological spring 2024. The forecast is based on evolving +IOD and El Nino climate enhanced by the influence of subtropical ridging associated with marine heatwaves located either side of the continent. The result is a significant drought across East Australia for the summer season ahead. Climate: Current soil moisture conditions reveal the onset of an anticipated major drought for summer 2023-24 as soil moisture conditions have turned considerably drier in the East and Southwest Australia according to NOAA/CPC (Fig. 1). The 30-day upper air pattern reveals a robust subtropical high-pressure area stretching across Australia from New Zealand causing early season excessive heat and attendant dryness (Fig. 2). The high-pressure ridge is associated with a semi-permanent marine heatwave (MHW) in the vicinity of New Zealand (Fig. 3). Additionaly, increased tendency for subtropical ridging from the west where a second marine heatwave is present in the South Indian Ocean can also occur at times. The drying influence too west and south Australia by a developing positive phase Indian Ocean dipole (+IOD) is evolving. An added dry influence for Eastern Australia has developed due to El Nino. A look at the North America multi-model ensemble (NMME) global SSTA forecast for FEB/MAR/APR 2024 reveals an evolving +IOD pattern during Q4/2023 reaches mature stage with widespread tropical Indian Ocean warming while the robust 2023-24 El Nino also continues (Fig. 4). Both regimes are likely dry influences on Australia climate. In addition, drying subtropical high-pressure ridging is enhanced due to the marine heatwaves on either side of Australia. Drying climate influences of +IOD, El Nino, and MHW’s are likely through the 2023-24 warm season across Australia. While large areas of warm SSTA in the subtropics/middle latitudes increase the risk of high-pressure ridging and attendant dry and hot weather risk, keep in mind that any synoptics storms or tropical cyclones moving across warmer than normal ocean waters can lead to excessive short-term rainfall events. Fig. 1: Daily soil moisture anomaly analysis across Australia. Fig. 2: The prevailing upper air pattern for the past 30 days. Fig. 3: Current global SSTA analysis. Fig. 4: The NMME global SSTA forecast for FEB/MAR/APR 2024. Methodology: The Australia season 1-3 ahead climate forecast is generated using a constructed analog based on regional SSTA patterns (IOD, ENSO, and MHW’s) and their correlating upper air patterns that generate the sensible weather pattern. JUN/JUL/AUG 2023 verification: The CIC-CA forecast for Australia winter featured cold risk across Southern Australia and warm risk in the Northeast (Fig. 5). The precipitation forecast was mostly seasonably dry (Fig. 6). The verification of temperature indicates a much warmer regime across Central and East Australia while the West and Southwest were temperate (Fig. 7). The winter precipitation regime was dry on each coast enabling drought development (Fig. 8). Fig. 5-8: The Climate Impact Company constructed analog temperature and precipitation anomaly climate forecasts for JUN/JUL/AUG 2023 and observed weather for comparison purposes. SEP/OCT/NOV 2023: During springtime, the prevailing upper air pattern features an amplified upper ridge off the southeast coast of Australia and related to the New Zealand MHW. The sensible weather pattern favors anomalous heat in Southeast Australia with warmer than normal conditions for most of the continent. Dryness is dominant across much of Eastern Australia where drought is likely to expand. The northern continent is also drier than normal. Fig. 9-10: The Climate Impact Company constructed analog temperature and precipitation anomaly climate forecasts for SEP/OCT/NOV 2023.  DEC/JAN/FEB 2023-24: During summertime, the subtropical ridge associated with the South Indian Ocean MHW extends eastward across Australia. The New Zealand upper ridge shifts eastward and away from the East Australia coast. Favored is anomalous heat across much of the continent most confidently forecast in the Northwest but also present in Southeast Australia. Dryness is dominant in the East where drought worsens. The upper coast of Western Australia is cool due to cool SSTA just offshore. Strong East Australia drought is underway! Fig. 11-12: The Climate Impact Company constructed analog temperature and precipitation anomaly climate forecasts for DEC/JAN/FEB 2023-24.  MAR/APR/MAY 2024: Next autumn remains warmer than normal across much of Australia. Some relief from tropical cyclones to bring rain in Queensland is indicated. A strong drought across New South Wales to Victoria is likely to continue. Drought is also present across much of Western Australia. Fig. 13-14: The Climate Impact Company constructed analog temperature and precipitation anomaly climate forecasts for MAR/APR/MAY 2024.  
09/22/2023, 9:32 am EDT

Brazil Heatwave Locks In!

An amplified high-pressure ridge has emerged in Brazil triggering an expansive heatwave in which much of the nation is exposed to >100F risk. The super-hot weather is likely to last for a while as the high-pressure ridge holds into October. Dry weather is focused on central and northern Brazil during the hot weather pattern.