09/10/2023, 4:22 pm EDT

Refining the ENSO 2023-24 Outlook by Including Multivariate ENSO Index

The JUL/AUG multivariate ENSO index (MEI) failed to indicate evolution of an El Nino climate despite the robust oceanic El Nino presence across the equatorial East Pacific. Consequently, adjustments of the ENSO 2023-24 forecast considering MEI indicate that despite a robust warm equatorial East Pacific SSTA regime continuing to strengthen during Q4/2023, the attendant El Nino climate is likely moderate.
09/10/2023, 3:34 pm EDT

97L Follows Lee and Margot, Potential East U.S. Problem

Tropical Disturbance 97L formed earlier today and is forecast by tropical cyclone models to become a tropical storm by WED/THU in the central tropical North Atlantic. This system is likely to follow a similar path as Lee and intensify into a hurricane in the 6-10-day period. In the 11-15-day period, there is risk to the East Coast of a hurricane although risk is low for the Gulf of Mexico.
09/08/2023, 9:13 am EDT

September 2023 Global Soil Moisture 3-Month Observation/Forecast Trend

During JUN/JUL/AUG 2023 large regions of drying soils and/or worsening drought outnumbered wet regions by approximately 15 to 4. The tendency for dryness in the northern hemisphere is linked to above normal mid-troposphere high pressure associated with large areas of anomalous warm mid-latitude oceans including marine heatwaves (MHW). In the southern hemisphere, oncoming drier soils are mostly related to a developing El Nino climate.
09/08/2023, 8:53 am EDT

Lee Still an Intensifying Powerful Category-5 Major Hurricane

Lee is a still intensifying category-5 major hurricane. The west-northwest movement at 14 mph is expected to slow down over the weekend as the "Bermuda High" to the north providing steering currents for Lee weakens. As Lee slows down, the major hurricane expands. Forecast models continue to indicate a northward turn prior to crossing 70W longitude which lowers U.S. East Coast implications. Note that the waters are cooler than normal east of the Gulf Stream which may cause Lee to weaken while turning northward.