09/18/2023, 5:12 am EDT

Pattern Reversal: Amundsen Sea Trough Replaced by Ridge; Teleconnection to Brazil is Hot/Dry Ridge

The latest 15-day upper air forecast for the southern hemisphere (by GFS) reveals an amplifying titanic upper-level high pressure ridge developing southwest of South America. Previously, the 2020-23 semi-permanent Amundsen Sea upper trough was “locked-in” the previous 30+ days and responsible in part for a wet pattern for much of Chile, Argentina, and Brazil. The pattern is about to reverse.
09/17/2023, 11:02 am EDT

Correlating Northeast Pacific SSTA and Europe Winter Temperature

When was the last cold winter season in Europe? Sprawling meteorological winter (DEC/JAN/FEB) cold was last observed during winter 2012-13. Since that time, 8 of 10 winter seasons have been warmer than normal across Europe. During the past 30 years, 7 widespread cold winter seasons have been observed clustering in the mid-to-late 1990’s and in the 2008-2013 period.
09/15/2023, 1:59 pm EDT

Peak Wind Gusts New England Coast 3PM Saturday

The HRRR model projects the strongest wind gusts at mid-afternoon tomorrow throughout the coastal New England region including potential hurricane force gusts on the mid-to-upper Maine coast. At that time, high gusts continue as far south as Cape Cod.
09/15/2023, 5:43 am EDT

Expansion of Amundsen Sea Trough Soaks South America

During the past 30 days a wet climate has emerged across Brazil, Chile, and eastward across Central Argentina. The wet pattern was somewhat unexpected. The rainy pattern has shifted soil moisture wetter in Central/East-central, and Southeast Brazil and eroded Chile and Argentina drought.