September 2023 - Page 2 of 3 - Climate Impact Company

09/19/2023, 7:47 am EDT

New Zealand Marine Heatwave/Climate Could Add to Australia Drought Risk

A semi-permanent summertime high-pressure ridge in the vicinity of the New Zealand marine heatwave much of the past 10 years is likely to regenerate during summer 2023-24. Proposed is an added climate diagnostic supporting an anomalous dry and hot summer 2023-24 climate pattern across Australia causing a major drought.

09/18/2023, 5:15 am EDT

Drought Concerns for Brazil and Australia for Summer 2023-24 Emerging; Australia Heat Strengthens!

A major concern for summer 2023-24 in the southern hemisphere is a major drought in South America (Brazil) and Australia somewhat related to the developing El Nino climate and contributions by the positive phase Indian ocean dipole (+IOD). Early season torrid heat is developing across Australia.

09/18/2023, 5:12 am EDT

Pattern Reversal: Amundsen Sea Trough Replaced by Ridge; Teleconnection to Brazil is Hot/Dry Ridge

The latest 15-day upper air forecast for the southern hemisphere (by GFS) reveals an amplifying titanic upper-level high pressure ridge developing southwest of South America. Previously, the 2020-23 semi-permanent Amundsen Sea upper trough was “locked-in” the previous 30+ days and responsible in part for a wet pattern for much of Chile, Argentina, and Brazil. The pattern is about to reverse.

09/17/2023, 11:02 am EDT

Correlating Northeast Pacific SSTA and Europe Winter Temperature

When was the last cold winter season in Europe? Sprawling meteorological winter (DEC/JAN/FEB) cold was last observed during winter 2012-13. Since that time, 8 of 10 winter seasons have been warmer than normal across Europe. During the past 30 years, 7 widespread cold winter seasons have been observed clustering in the mid-to-late 1990’s and in the 2008-2013 period.

09/15/2023, 1:59 pm EDT

Peak Wind Gusts New England Coast 3PM Saturday

The HRRR model projects the strongest wind gusts at mid-afternoon tomorrow throughout the coastal New England region including potential hurricane force gusts on the mid-to-upper Maine coast. At that time, high gusts continue as far south as Cape Cod.

09/15/2023, 5:43 am EDT

Expansion of Amundsen Sea Trough Soaks South America

During the past 30 days a wet climate has emerged across Brazil, Chile, and eastward across Central Argentina. The wet pattern was somewhat unexpected. The rainy pattern has shifted soil moisture wetter in Central/East-central, and Southeast Brazil and eroded Chile and Argentina drought.

09/13/2023, 9:06 am EDT

Wetter Central U.S. Ahead but Does That Rain Benefit Mississippi River?

Late season arid climate in the East-central U.S. has caused Mississippi River levels to lower below “low stage” as indicated at Memphis. The latest U.S. medium-range forecast is wetter in the Great Plains but will that rain help the river level?

09/13/2023, 8:17 am EDT

Understanding The Difference Between Multivariate ENSO Index and Nino34 SSTA Index

The Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI.v2) and the Niño 3.4 Index value are two (of many) indices used to monitor the behavior and evolution of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). However, these two indices cannot be used as an apples-to-apples comparison. Both are distinctly different from each other in spatial resolution, temporal resolution and ocean-atmospheric variables considered in the computation of the indices.

09/12/2023, 3:47 pm EDT

Omega Block + Marine Heatwave = Libya Flooding

Once again, large marine heatwaves are causal to a catastrophic climate event, this time extreme rainfall in Libya. A large marine heat wave formed off the Northwest Coast earlier this year and recently expanded into the Mediterranean Sea. The upper air pattern associated with the MHW featured an amplified summertime ridge over Europe compensated for by a downstream trough across the east-central Mediterranean Sea. The most recent version of this pattern featured an omega blocking high-pressure centered on Germany.

09/12/2023, 11:52 am EDT

Summer 2023 Was 15th Hottest on Record Although Population Weight CDD Were Diminished

Meteorological summer 2023 was the 15th hottest on record and included the hottest summer in recorded in history for Louisiana. However, because the hot summer did not strike the Northeast Corridor, the U.S. population weight cooling degree days were greatly diminished. In fact, the last 3 summer seasons were hotter then summer 2023.

09/12/2023, 11:44 am EDT

North Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclone Season More Active Than Normal at Midpoint

The midpoint of the 2023 North Atlantic basin tropical cyclone season has passed after 15 tropical storms (8.5 is normal), 5 hurricanes (3.5 is normal), and 3 major hurricanes (1.5 is normal). The ACE index is 86.4 (62.4 is normal). On average, the seasonal tropical cyclone seasonal forecasts for 2023 were up to 21 tropical storms, 11 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes. Given the pace we're on, the upper limit of seasonal forecast is certainly possible.

09/11/2023, 1:47 pm EDT

The AUG-23 and JUN/JUL/AUG 2023 U.S. State Climate Rankings

The meteorological summer 2023 season was the 15th hottest on record for the U.S. Louisiana observed their hottest summer on record. Texas and Florida observed their 2nd hottest summer on record. New Mexico and Mississippi observed a top-6 hottest summer season. The Ohio and Tennessee Valley(s) managed a slightly cooler than normal summer of 2023.