09/27/2023, 8:06 am EDT

Strong Bias/Error by GFS Recent South America Temperature Forecasts

During the week of Sep. 19-25, the verified temperature anomalies across Paraguay averaged an impressive +7C while interior Southeast Brazil was +4C to +7C. However, outside of this very hot region, the temperature anomalies for the week were not nearly as hot. Recent 1-5-day and 6-10-day temperature anomaly forecasts by GFS are much too warm incorrectly indicating too much anomalous heat.
09/27/2023, 7:46 am EDT

Australia Pattern Change Ahead

The Australian rainfall pattern is shifting very dry. Last week, coastal areas susceptible to wet weather received little or no rain. Drying soil moisture regions is accelerating due to the lack of rain and recent expansive anomalous heat. However, a pattern change is ahead. After additional dry and hot weather for another week or so, a sharp cold front brings heavy rain to Southeast Australia mid-next week.
09/26/2023, 9:12 am EDT

North Atlantic Basin 2023 Seasonal Activity So Far

The 2023 season so far is more active than normal with 17 tropical storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. The amount of activity so far and outlook for the remainder of the season implies the consensus seasonal forecasts will be accurate.
09/25/2023, 2:46 pm EDT

Warm Mid-latitude Oceans Bias Climate Warm

Certainly, a cooler pattern change can emerge at any time. However, the process of generating cooler pattern change is made more difficult by the much warmer than normal mid-latitude ocean surface.