05/31/2023, 2:16 pm EDT

Delek Energy Weekly PPTX Presentation

05/31/2023, 2:15 pm EDT

AG Market Global Weather/Climate Alert PPTX Presentation

05/31/2023, 2:13 pm EDT

North Atlantic Warm Hole Is Catalyst to Midwest Drought Development/East U.S. Cool Bias

The North Atlantic warm hole (NAWH) is the result of stratifying cold water in the Labrador Sea and south of Greenland caused by accelerated snow and ice melt from East Canada and Greenland during the past 10 years. This prominent SSTA feature has shifted westward during the late spring season, the farthest west shift during the 2013-23 active period.
05/31/2023, 8:29 am EDT

U.S. Energy Market Early Notes

Admin: On vacation and out of office June 3-10. By early tomorrow: Updated North Atlantic tropical cyclone outlook. Fig. 1: NOAA/WPC 72-hour rainfall forecast across the U.S. Discussion: The 72-hour rainfall forecast indicates 3 areas of interest. Subtropical rains associated with a stalled cold front and a subtropical low-pressure area cause heavy rains in the northeast Gulf of Mexico and Florida the remainder of the work week (Fig. 1). Severe thunderstorms will trigger several days of heavy rain centered on the southwestern Great Plains. Beginning tomorrow, wet weather extends from Montana to the Canadian Prairies. The dryness in the Midwest persists. The latest 15-day precipitation forecast across the U.S. identifies the persistence of the expected pattern for the first half of June (Fig. 2). Of interest is a consistent showery pattern across Florida with a tail into the tropics identifying potential for early season tropical activity. Additionally, persistent tropical rains are also projected across the Northern Caribbean Islands. Meanwhile a persistent wet weather zone sets-up over the Western U.S. while the Midwest States stay dry. Fig. 2: The GFS 15-day percent of normal rainfall forecast for North America. The latest U.S. gas population weight CDD forecast reveals continued disagreement between a warmer ECM ENS/CMC ENS projection into mid-June while the GFS is much cooler (Fig. 3). The consensus forecast is slightly warmer for June 9-15. Fig. 3: Latest U.S. population weight CDD forecast utilizing all models, their consensus, and comparing with 24 hours ago and climatology.     .