May 2023 - Page 2 of 3 - Climate Impact Company

05/18/2023, 12:19 pm EDT

Subtropical System Developing off the U.S. Southeast Coast?

An area of low pressure is forming off the East Coast of Georgia along a quasi-stationary frontal system. Plumes of thunderstorm activity are ahead of this low-pressure area. Near the low-pressure area, a plume of water ocean surface water associated with Gulf Stream is in the 27C range.

05/18/2023, 12:11 pm EDT

Marine Heat Wave Shifts West, Contributes to “Apocalyptic” Italy/Southeast Europe Rains Past Few Days

Once again, marine heat waves are in the news as a catalyst to a major weather event. A large MHW off the Northwest Africa/Southwest Europe coast the past few months shifted westward the past couple weeks and the latent heat loss where the warm SSTA pattern was previously located (central/west Mediterranean Sea) deepened an upper-level storm that caused "apocalyptic" rains from Italy to Bosnia the past few days.

05/17/2023, 7:41 pm EDT

Climate Impact Company at GRAINCOM 2023 in Geneva, Switzerland

Many thanks to the GRAINCOM 2023 Gathering in Geneva, Switzerland May 15-17 for inviting Climate Impact Company to present on climate change, both projected and real-time. Special thanks to Dr. Olivia Kellner for her presentation on "Global Cereals Crop Production 2030 and Beyond in a Changing Global Climate System" to a group of many hundreds of delegates from all over the world. An essential and vital speech. Thank you to all that attended!

05/12/2023, 8:27 am EDT

RRR Pattern Continues to Shape Medium-range Forecast

The chart above identifies the warming of the atmosphere by a warm water zone known as a semi-permanent marine heat wave causing a semi-permanent upper-level high-pressure ridge (red) known as the ridiculously resilient ridge. The location of the ridge for each of the past 9 years is identified.

05/12/2023, 8:19 am EDT

NOAA/NHC Identify Event 1 of 2023 Occurred in Mid-January

On May 11th, NOAA/NHC determined an intense storm off the Northeast U.S. Coast gained subtropical characteristics and is considered the first event of the 2023 season. The next storm will be identified as AL02 although given the name Arlene if intensification occurs.

05/11/2023, 5:40 am EDT

Where Are Marine Heat Waves Located?

Beginning with the 2013-14 Northeast Pacific marine heat wave (MHW) known at the time as the “warm blob” regional very warm (and cool) ocean surface zones have accelerated and are affecting our climate. The most recent analysis identifying where MHW’s are currently located indicates 5 major events that are ongoing. Learn more from Climate Impact Company at GRAINCOM 2023 in Geneva, Switzerland May 15-17, 2023!

05/10/2023, 8:29 am EDT

Warm and Cool Regional SSTA and Their Correlation to “Ridiculously Resilient Ridge (and Trough)” Locations

A semi-permanent upper-level high-pressure ridge formed in the Northeast Pacific Ocean and extended to Western North America centered on the 2013-16 period. The upper ridge was well-correlated to the “warm blob” of surface and deep layer ocean water in the Northeast Pacific at that time. The “warm blob” was an example of a marine heat wave (MHW) and the attendant upper air pattern became known as the “ridiculously resilient ridge” (RRR) infamous for accelerating the long-term California drought.

05/08/2023, 5:15 am EDT

Heavy Rains for the Great Plains and Europe Ahead

Presence of an upper trough across South-central Europe much of the next 2 weeks entraining buoyant low-level atmosphere moisture from the much warmer than normal western Mediterranean Sea causes a large area of heavy rain in the latest GFS 15-day forecast.

05/08/2023, 5:07 am EDT

India/Southeast Asia Pattern Change

Evolution of a major tropical cyclone in the Bay of Bengal later this week will bring a large area of excessive rain to the Southeast Asia drought area during the middle third of May. Meanwhile, India will turn very dry and hot after a recent period a thundershower weather pattern.

05/07/2023, 9:33 am EDT

U.S. Rains, MJO and El Nino

The 10-day rainfall forecasts feature buoyant amounts across Texas where ECM ENS forecasts extreme rainfall. The Texas drought is easing. To the north of this wet zone easing Texas drought, forecasts are uncertain how much heavy rain can infiltrate northern latitudes and if any of that rain can strike the core of the current drought in Kansas.

05/02/2023, 1:47 pm EDT

Great Plains Heavy Rain Indicated by 12Z GFS

At midday, the 12Z GFS unloads heavy to extreme rain on the core of the U.S. drought zone located in Kansas and vicinity. Additional heavy rain is forecast for the Southeast U.S.

05/02/2023, 8:56 am EDT

Dramatic Cooling Gulf of Mexico While North Atlantic Outer Tropics are Very Warm

The unusually warm Gulf of Mexico SST of Q1/2023 increased low-level atmospheric moisture that when entrained into mid-latitude synoptic storms, caused excessive rainfall and unusually intense severe weather. However, the increase in southern latitude storm track intensity inspired by transient Pacific MJO episodes in March and April has caused a steady loss of upper ocean heat in the Gulf of Mexico in recent weeks. The 30-day SSTA change in the Gulf of Mexico is nearly 1C.