Heavy Rains for the Great Plains and Europe Ahead

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Fig. 1-4: The NOAA/WPC quantitative precipitation forecast for the U.S. during the next 3 days, days 4-5, and days 6-7 plus the GFS 8-14-day forecast.

Discussion: A thundery/heavy rain shower pattern develops in the Central/East-central U.S. this week gradually shifting the bulk of the attendant rainfall to Texas (Fig. 1-3). Severe thunderstorms are likely in the Ohio Valley today, and parts of the west/southwest Great Plains through the remainder of the week. Excessive rainfall causing flooding is possible in Southern Illinois today, eastern portions of Kansas and Texas tomorrow, and Nebraska to eastern Texas Wednesday. Heavy rain risk is focused on South Dakota, the Mid-south, and Texas THU/FRI. Heavy rain shifts into the western half of Texas next weekend. In the 8-14-day period, GFS indicates the Great Plains is mostly dry while the wet pattern in Texas continues with less intensity (Fig. 4).

In Europe/Western Russia, last week brought mostly dry weather (except for Southeast Europe and Ireland/U.K.) most notable in East Europe/Western Russia and continuing in Spain (Fig. 5). Drought conditions continue to strengthen across Southwest Europe while Western Russia and most of central and southeast portions of Europe have plenty of soil moisture (Fig. 6). Presence of an upper trough across South-central Europe much of the next 2 weeks entraining buoyant low-level atmosphere moisture from the much warmer than normal western Mediterranean Sea causes a large area of heavy rain in the latest GFS 15-day forecast (Fig. 7).

Meanwhile, the torrid Argentina drought roars on and includes Uruguay and far southeast Brazil with another dry 15-day forecast indicated by GFS (Fig. 8). In Australia, a wet pattern clings to the immediate East Coast at times in the latest GFS 15-day outlook while the remainder of the continent is dry (Fig. 9).

Fig. 5-6: Last week’s percent of normal rainfall across Europe and Western Russia and the attendant soil moisture anomaly conditions.

Fig. 7: GFS 15-day rainfall forecast across Europe and Western Russia.

Fig. 8: GFS 15-day percent of normal rainfall forecast across South America.

Fig. 9: GFS 15-day precipitation anomaly forecast for Australia.