11/30/2022, 7:01 am EST

U.S. Gas Population Wight HDD Forecasts Trend Colder

Evolution of negative North Atlantic oscillation inevitably leads to a cold trough on the East Coast. Coupled with expanding snow cover, the U.S. gas population weight HDD forecast trends to colder than normal for the next 2 weeks.
11/29/2022, 12:55 pm EST

Explaining The Uncertainties Of The Titanic Negative North Atlantic Oscillation Ahead

Evolution of a titanic negative North Atlantic oscillation (-NAO) pattern is indicated during the medium-range. The effect of -NAO is to produce anomalous upper-level high-pressure blocking over Greenland. The high-pressure block is certainly evident in the “most likely” upper air forecast for the northern hemisphere by the mega-cluster ensemble.
11/28/2022, 8:23 am EST

U.S. Gas/Power Market Notes: An update on short-term and winter gas population weight HDD forecasts

Fig. 1: Latest U.S. gas population weight HDD forecast using a consensus of all operational models compared to 24 hours ago and the 10-year/30-year normal. Discussion: The latest operational U.S. gas population weight HDD forecast through the week of Dec. 9-15 yields a colder change for next week and not much change for the following week with national heating demand averaging between the 10-year and 30-year normal (Fig. 1). In the latest cold season (OCT-22 to APR-23) monthly HDD anomaly forecast the OCT/NOV 2022 national heating demand was generally higher than the past 3 years (Fig. 2). A similar trend is indicated for DEC/JAN 2022-23 although not as cold as the 30-year normal. February heating demand is above normal although not as extreme as 2021. MAR/APR will finish the cold season with below normal national heating demand. The cold season 2022-23 national HDD forecast is generally in-between the 30-year and 10-year climatology except colder than each for November and February (Fig. 3). Fig. 2: Climate Impact Company cold season 2022-23 monthly HDD anomaly forecast compared to the past 3 winter seasons.    Fig. 3: Climate Impact Company cold season month U.S. gas population weight HDD forecast compared to the 30-year/10-year climatology.      
11/28/2022, 8:13 am EST

ALERT for Cold from Western Russia/Ukraine to Europe

In a worse case scenario, the evolving cold pattern in Western Russia is trending stronger and is now more expansive into Europe likely reaching U.K. in the medium range. The Canadian Ensemble most effectively illustrates the cold risk.