Fig. 1: One of the many extremely hot days in the 15-day forecast across Argentina featuring 105-115F risk on Dec. 7, 2022.
Discussion: An ALERT is issued for an excessive heat risk centered on Argentina for much of the next 2 weeks. The peak hot day is likely Dec. 7, 2022, when 105-115F is projected across North-central Argentina (Fig. 1). There are many similarly hot days during the 2-week stretch. The 15-day departure from normal temperature forecast across Argentina is >10F over the interior northeast (Fig. 2). A dry 15-day forecast is indicated in the core of the anomalous hot weather (Fig. 3) where drought is strongest and will accelerate as meteorological summer arrives. The opposite regime is projected across East and Northeast Brazil where wet weather suppresses heat risk.
Fig. 2-3: The GFS 15-day temperature anomaly and percent of normal rainfall forecast across Argentina and Brazil.